اخبار و اعلانات

 آمار

تعداد نشریات285
تعداد نشریات سازمان83
تعداد شماره‌ها3,088
تعداد مقالات34,494
تعداد مشاهده مقاله49,275,524
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله79,745,447
مستان, فرزانه, زیبایی, منصور, فرج زاده, زکریا. (1397). پیامدهای آزادسازی تجاری با تأکید بر امنیت غذایی در ایران: تحلیلی درچارچوب تعادل عمومی. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 26(1), 145-180. doi: 10.30490/aead.2018.65203
فرزانه مستان; منصور زیبایی; زکریا فرج زاده. "پیامدهای آزادسازی تجاری با تأکید بر امنیت غذایی در ایران: تحلیلی درچارچوب تعادل عمومی". سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 26, 1, 1397, 145-180. doi: 10.30490/aead.2018.65203
مستان, فرزانه, زیبایی, منصور, فرج زاده, زکریا. (1397). 'پیامدهای آزادسازی تجاری با تأکید بر امنیت غذایی در ایران: تحلیلی درچارچوب تعادل عمومی', سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 26(1), pp. 145-180. doi: 10.30490/aead.2018.65203
مستان, فرزانه, زیبایی, منصور, فرج زاده, زکریا. پیامدهای آزادسازی تجاری با تأکید بر امنیت غذایی در ایران: تحلیلی درچارچوب تعادل عمومی. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 1397; 26(1): 145-180. doi: 10.30490/aead.2018.65203

پیامدهای آزادسازی تجاری با تأکید بر امنیت غذایی در ایران: تحلیلی درچارچوب تعادل عمومی

اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
مقاله 7، دوره 26، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 101، خرداد 1397، صفحه 145-180    اصل مقاله (298.34 K)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30490/aead.2018.65203
نویسندگان
فرزانه مستان1؛ منصور زیبایی2؛ زکریا فرج زاده* 3
1دانش‌آموختة کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز
2استاد بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز
3استادیار بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز
چکیده

آزادسازی تجاری منافعی همچون افزایش رفاه و افزایش سطح تولید را به همراه دارد اما ممکن است بر برخی از متغیرها مانند امنیت غذایی اثر نامطلوبی داشته باشد. این مطالعه با هدف شبیه­سازی پیامدهای رفاهی و امنیت غذایی آزادسازی تجاری صورت گرفت. آزادسازی تجاری در قالب دو سناریوی حذف موانع تعرفه­ای و حذف هم‌زمان موانع تعرفه­ای و غیرتعرفه­ای ارزیابی شد. ابزار مورد استفاده برای شبیه­سازی، مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه براساس داده­های ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی[1] است. یافته­های مطالعه حاکی از تغییرات محسوس در ترکیب تولید و کاهش تولید محصولات کشاورزی و صنایع کشاورزی است، اما در کل اقتصاد، آزادسازی تجاری موجب کاهش سطح عمومی قیمت­ها، افزایش تولید ناخالص داخلی و افزایش مصرف و رفاه خانوارها به‌ویژه خانوارهای دهک­های درآمدی بالا می­شود. همچنین یافته­های مطالعه نشان داد با کاهش موانع تجاری و افزایش واردات محصولات غذایی، شاخص­های امنیت غذایی مبتنی بر تراز تجاری و تولید کاهش می­یابد در حالی که شاخص تأمین مواد غذایی افزایش امنیت غذایی را نشان می­دهد. به این معنی که آزادسازی تجاری موجب افزایش دسترسی به غذا می­شود، اما در عین حال اتکا به تأمین از طریق واردات افزایش می­یابد.
 
طبقه­بندی JEL: F13,F14,Q17, Q18



 .[1]این ماتریس برگرفته از مطالعه فرج زاده (12) می باشد که مطالعه یادشده نیز بر مبنای آخرین ماتریس بانک مرکزی )مربوط به سال 1378) آن را اصلاح و بخش­های مربوط به تجارت و همچنین یارانه­ها را به‌روزرسانی کرده است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
آزادسازی تجاری؛ رفاه؛ امنیت غذایی؛ تعادل عمومی قابل‌محاسبه
عنوان مقاله [English]
Trade Liberalization Consequences with an Emphasis on Food Security in Iran: Computable General Equilibrium Analysis
نویسندگان [English]
F. Mostajeran1؛ M. Zibaei2؛ Z. Farajzadeh3
1M.Sc. in Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
2Professor of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
3Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
چکیده [English]

Trade liberalization entails benefits such as higher welfare and output. However, it may affect some variables like food security adversely. This study aims at simulating welfare and food security consequences of trade liberalization. Trade liberalization was investigated under two scenarios namely, the elimination of tariff as well as non-tariff barriers removal (free-trade) using a computable general equilibrium model based on the Iranian social account matrix. The results showed significant changes in output combination as it induces a reduction in output of agricultural sectors and agricultural-based industries. However, in the economy as a whole, it results in lower prices and higher GDP as well as higher consumption and welfare especially throughout higher income groups. It was also found that production and trade balance food security indices tend to decrease as trade barriers are removed and food items imports increases. While household food cover index shows higher food security, meaning that trade liberalization results in higher access to food but it induces more dependence on import-based food supply.
 
JEL Classification: F13, F14, Q17, Q18 
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Trade Liberalization, welfare, Food Security, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)
مراجع
  1. Acharya, S., Hölscher, J. and Perugini, C. (2012). Trade liberalization and inequalities in Nepal: A CGE analysis. Economic Modelling, 29: 2543–2557.
  2. Adkins, L.G. and Garbaccio, R.F. (2007). Coordinating global trade and environmental policy: The role of pre-existing distortions. 10th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis. Purdue University, 179(21):140-125.
  3. Arunanondchai, J.M. (2003). Applied general equilibrium analysis of trade liberalization on land-based sectors in Malaysia and Indonesia. Journal of Policy Modeling, 25(1): 947-961.
  4. Asche, F., Bellemare, M.F., Roheim, C., Smith, M.D. and Tveteras, S. (2014). Fair enough? Food security and the international trade of seafood. World Development, 67: 151–160.
  5. Bakhshi, M.R., Mollaei, Z., Faraji Sabokbar, H., Badri, A. and Pakdel, F. (2011). Status of Food Security in CIRDAPs: An Integrated Approach of AHP and PROMETHEE. Agricultural Economics and Development, 73(2): 23-47. (Persian)
  6. Baseri, B. (1999). Measuring supportive policies in Iranian manufacturing industries. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 7(4): 15-21. (Persian) 
  7. Bautista, R.M. and Thomas, M. (1997). Income effects of alternative trade policy adjustments on Philippine rural households: A general equilibrium analysis. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 55(20):110-127.
  8. Chemingui, M.A. and Dessus, S. (2008). Assessing non-tariff barriers in Syria. Journal of Policy Modeling, 55(30): 917-928.
  9. Dorosh, P. (2001). Trade liberalization and national food security: Rice trade between Bangladesh and India. World Development, 29: 673–689.
  10. Fæhn, T. and Holmøy, E. (2003). Trade liberalization and effects on pollutive emissions to air and deposits of solid waste. A general equilibrium assessment for Norway. Economic Modelling, 20(7): 703-727.
  11. FAO Statistical Database. (2011). Available at http://www.fao.org.
  12. Farajzadeh, Z. (2012). Environmental and welfare impacts of trade and energy policy reforms in Iran. PhD Thesis of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Shiraz University. (Persian)
  13. Farajzadeh, Z., Zhu, X. and Bakhshoodeh, M. (2017). Trade reform in Iran for accession to the World Trade Organization: Analysis of welfare and environmental impacts. Economic Modelling, 63: 75-85.
  14. Faryadras, V. and Moghaddasi, R. (2005). Non-tariff barriers quantification procedures: A case study on agriculture sector of Iran. Agricultural Economics and Development, 52(4): 61-86. (Persian) 
  15. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). (2001) Handbook for defining and setting up a food security information and early warning system (FSIEWS), Rome, DP.4-5.
  16. Gelan, A. (2002). Trade liberalization and urban–rural linkages: a CGE analysis for Ethiopia. Journal of Policy Modeling, 24(4): 707-738.
  17. Gharib, H. (2011). Food Security Outlook in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Strategy, 65: 345-369. (Persian) 
  18. Giesecke, J.A., Tran, N.H., Corong, E.L. and Jaffee, S. (2013). Rice land designation policy in Vietnam and the implications of policy reform for food security and economic welfare. The Journal of Development Studies, 49(2): 1202-1218.
  19. Gumilang, H., Mukhopadhyay, K. and Thomassin, P.J. (2011). Economic and environmental impacts of trade liberalization: The case of Indonesia. Economic Modelling, 28(15): 1030-1041.
  20. Hosoe, N. (2016). The double dividend of agricultural trade liberalization: Consistency between national food security and gains from trade. Journal of Asian Economics, 43: 27–36.
  21. Hosseini, S.M., Ahmad, Z. and Lai, Y.W. (2011). The role of macroeconomic variables on stock market index in China and India. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(21): 323-333.
  22. Hubbard, L. and Hubbard, C. (2013). Food security in the United Kingdom: External supply risks. Food Policy, 43(5): 142-147.
  23. Iranian Customs Administration. (2009) Available at. http://www.irica.gov.ir/Portal/Home.
  24. Jensen, J. and Tarr, D. (2003). Trade, exchange rate, and energy pricing reform in Iran: Potentially large efficiency effects and gains to the poor. Review of Development Economics, 7(4): 543-562.
  25. Kang, S.I. and Kim, J.J. (2004). A quantitative analysis of the environmental impact induced by free trade between Korea and Japan, 7th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis Trade, Washington DC,17(2):12-19.
  26. Khalilzadeh, J., Heidari, H., Faljou, H. and Mohseni Zonouzi, S.J. (2014). Investigating the impact of WTO Membership on Iran's agricultural sector. Economic Research and Regional Development, 21(2): 151-174. (Persian) 
  27. Khodadadkashi, F. and Heidari, K. (2004). Estimation of food security level of Iranian households based on AHFSI index. Agricultural Economics and Development, 48(4): 155-166. (Persian) 
  28. Kim, S.H. and Kose, M.A. (2014). Welfare implications of trade liberalization and fiscal reform: A quantitative experiment. Journal of International Economics, 92: 198–209.
  29. Kitwiwattanachai, A., Nelson, D. and Reed, G. (2010). Quantitative impacts of alternative East Asia free trade areas: A computable general equilibrium (CGE) assessment. Journal of Policy Modeling, 32(1): 286-301.
  30. Komijani, A., Moghaddasi, R., Gilanpour, O. and Noori, K. (2001). Identifying non-tariff barriers and calculating its tariff equivalent in agricultural sector of Iran. Agricultural Economics and Development, 35(2): 65-77. (Persian) 
  31. Konandreas, P. (2007). WTO negotiations on agriculture: A compromise on food aid is possible. WTO Rules for Agriculture Compatible with Development, 54(12): 313-331.
  32. Lejour, A., de Mooij, R. and Capel, C. (2004). Assessing the economic implications of Turkish accession to the EU. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  33. Lofgren, H. and El-Said, M. (1999). A general equilibrium analysis of alternative scenarios for food subsidy reform in Egypt. Washington DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  34. Mariano, M.M. and Giesecke, J.A. (2014). The macroeconomic and food security implications of price interventions in the Philippine rice market. Economic Modelling, 37: 350–361.
  35. Markusen, J.R. (1995). The boundaries of multinational enterprises and the theory of international trade. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 74(8): 169-189.
  36. Mc Donald, S., Thierfelder, K. and Robinson, S. )2007(. Globe: A SAM based global CGE model using GTAP Data. Available at http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/usnusnawp/14.htm.
  37. Mehrabi Boshrabadi, H. and Mousavi Mohammadi, H. (2009). An examination of the effects of trade liberalization on food security of Iranian rural households. Village and Development, 12(2): 1-13. (Persian) 
  38. Mehrara, M. and Barkhordari, S. (2007). The Impacts of Iran's joining the WTO on Employment and Value Added of Economic Sectors (CGE/AGE Approach). Journal of Economic Research, 42(3): 171-194. (Persian) 
  39. Oskouei, M.M., Sadeghi, H. and Behbudi, D. (2009). Influence of imports tariff reduction on employment level and income distribution among urban and rural households. Journal of Economics Research, 35(4): 89-111. (Persian) 
  40. Perali, F., Pieroni, L. and Standardi, G. (2012). World tariff liberalization in agriculture: An assessment using a global CGE trade model for EU15 regions. Journal of Policy Modeling, 34: 155–180.
  41. Rae, A. and Josling, T. (2003). Processed food trade and developing countries: Protection and trade liberalization. Food Policy, 28(4): 147-166.
  42. Rahiminia, H. and Akbari Moghadam, B. (2016). The impact of subsidies reform on the inequality of welfare in Iran (CGE Modelling and Equivalent Variation (EV) Index). Quarterly Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran (AESI), 17: 243-271. (Persian)  
  43. Ranjan, P. (2012). Trade liberalization, unemployment, and inequality with endogenous job destruction. International Review of Economics and Finance, 23: 16–29.
  44. Sajadpour, M.K. and Ahmadi Khoi, A.R. (2011). Conceptual change and components of the international food safety regime. Iranian Political Science Association, 6(4):145-177. (Persian) 
  45. Salem, B. (2012). A study of the industrial and commercial production process of agriculture in Iran and selected countries in respect of trade liberalization of the last decade. Economic Journal, 4&5: 39-60. (Persian) 
  46. Salem, J. and Mojaverian, M. (2013). Study of food import capacity effects on rural households’ food security in Iran. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 44(3): 379-388. (Persian) 
  47. Sartori, M. and Schiavo, S. (2015). Connected we stand: A network perspective on trade and global food security. Food Policy, 57: 114–127.
  48. Slimane, M.B., Huchet-Bourdon, M. and Zitouna, H. (2016). The role of sectoral FDI in promoting agricultural production and improving food security. International Economics, 145: 50–65.
  49. Stern, R.M. and Deardorff, A.V. (2006). Globalization’s bystanders: Does trade liberalization hurt countries that do not participate. World Development, 34(1): 1419-1429.
  50. Van der Mensbrugghe, D., Roland-Holst, D., Dessus, S. and Beghin, J. (1998). The interface between growth, trade, pollution and natural resource use in Chile: Evidence from an economywide model. Agricultural Economics, 19(5): 87-97.
  51. Vennemo, H., Aunan, K., He, J., Hu, T., Li, S. and Rypdsal, K. (2008). Environmental impacts of China's WTO-accession. Ecological Economics, 64(1): 893-911.
  52. Winchester, N. )2009(. Is there a dirty little secret? Non-tariff barriers and the gains from trade. Journal of Policy Modeling, 31: 819–834.
  53. Zoghipour, A. and Zibaei, M. (2009). Effects of trade liberalization on the Iran's economic sectors: A computable general equilibrium approach. The Economic Research, 35(3): 113-138. (Persian) 
آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 562
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 413


counter
سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. طراحی و پیاده سازی از سیناوب