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Rajabali Nejad, A., nozari, N., Rahimi Badr, B. (2023). The Effect of Climatic Variables and the Role of Sanctions in Agricultural Production. , 31(2), 157-184. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.360203.1469
Abdollah Rajabali Nejad; niv nozari; Bita Rahimi Badr. "The Effect of Climatic Variables and the Role of Sanctions in Agricultural Production". , 31, 2, 2023, 157-184. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.360203.1469
Rajabali Nejad, A., nozari, N., Rahimi Badr, B. (2023). 'The Effect of Climatic Variables and the Role of Sanctions in Agricultural Production', , 31(2), pp. 157-184. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.360203.1469
Rajabali Nejad, A., nozari, N., Rahimi Badr, B. The Effect of Climatic Variables and the Role of Sanctions in Agricultural Production. , 2023; 31(2): 157-184. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.360203.1469

The Effect of Climatic Variables and the Role of Sanctions in Agricultural Production

اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
Article 7, Volume 31, Issue 2 - Serial Number 122, September 2023, Pages 157-184    PDF (719.42 K)
Document Type: Original Article
DOI: 10.30490/aead.2023.360203.1469
Authors
Abdollah Rajabali Nejad1; niv nozari* 2; Bita Rahimi Badr3
1PhD Student in Economics and Management, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Karaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran.
2Corresponding Author and Assistant Professor, Department of Economics and Management, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Karaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran
3Assistant Professor, Department of Economics and Management, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Karaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran.
Abstract
Introduction: Over the last fifty years, on average, the world has seen one incident per day related to climate change, climate and water hazards, and the number of disasters and natural disasters around the world has increased fivefold. The agricultural sector is the most dependent on the climate, and climate changes in Iran with a hot and dry climate have had significant impacts on agricultural production systems.
Materials and methods : In this study, using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) model of econometric method, the effects of climatic variables of temperature and precipitation and the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions along with the effect of the sanctions on the total agricultural production of Iran during 1971-2019 and the variables of chemical fertilizer and cultivated area as well as the fixed capital in the machinery of the agricultural sector as an indicator of technology were investigated. According to the definition of climate change, which is a change in weather conditions over a period of time, using the FMOLS model can be beneficial in investigating this phenomenon.
Results and Discussion: According to the results of this model, the concerned variables had significant relations with production. The climatic variable of average annual temperature had a non-linear relationship in the form of an inverted U with production. Similarly, the precipitation variable was found to have a non-linear, curve-shaped relationship with production. The physical variables of cultivated area, fertilizer, and production interruption had direct relations with the production. The CO2 variable and the livestock variable of the sanctions had negative effects on the agricultural production of the country.
Conclusion: Considering the phenomenon of climate change and global warming, and the results of this research confirming the effectiveness of production in relation to climate variables (temperature and precipitation), the use of temperature-resistant cultivars and varieties is recommended as a useful and effective way of dealing with climate change. The sanctions variable had a negative effect on the agricultural production of the country, highlighting the importance of the effect of sanctions on the amount of agricultural production and its role in food security.
Keywords
Agricultural Economics; Climate Change; Sanctions; Iran; CO2
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