اخبار و اعلانات

 آمار

تعداد نشریات286
تعداد نشریات سازمان84
تعداد شماره‌ها3,016
تعداد مقالات33,707
تعداد مشاهده مقاله44,919,584
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله44,519,677
علی احمدی, ندا, مرادی, ابراهیم, حسینی, سید مهدی, سردارشهرکی, علی. (1402). تخمین تابع عرضه و تقاضای محصولات کشاورزی حوضه آبریز هیرمند. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 31(2), 29-55. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.358228.1428
ندا علی احمدی; ابراهیم مرادی; سید مهدی حسینی; علی سردارشهرکی. "تخمین تابع عرضه و تقاضای محصولات کشاورزی حوضه آبریز هیرمند". سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 31, 2, 1402, 29-55. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.358228.1428
علی احمدی, ندا, مرادی, ابراهیم, حسینی, سید مهدی, سردارشهرکی, علی. (1402). 'تخمین تابع عرضه و تقاضای محصولات کشاورزی حوضه آبریز هیرمند', سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 31(2), pp. 29-55. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.358228.1428
علی احمدی, ندا, مرادی, ابراهیم, حسینی, سید مهدی, سردارشهرکی, علی. تخمین تابع عرضه و تقاضای محصولات کشاورزی حوضه آبریز هیرمند. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 1402; 31(2): 29-55. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.358228.1428

تخمین تابع عرضه و تقاضای محصولات کشاورزی حوضه آبریز هیرمند

اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
مقاله 2، دوره 31، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 122، مهر 1402، صفحه 29-55    اصل مقاله (529.43 K)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30490/aead.2023.358228.1428
نویسندگان
ندا علی احمدی1؛ ابراهیم مرادی* 2؛ سید مهدی حسینی3؛ علی سردارشهرکی4
1دانش‏ آموختة دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.
2نویسندة مسئول و دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران
3استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.
4دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.
چکیده
برآورد عرضه و تقاضای بخش کشاورزی و شناخت عوامل مؤثر بر آن می‌­تواند موجب کارآتر شدن سیاست­‌ها و برنامه­‌ریزی­‌ها در این بخش شود. هدف اصلی مطالعه حاضر شناسایی سیاست­‌های مورد نیاز برای تعادل عرضه و تقاضای محصولات کشاورزی منطقه سیستان بود؛ و بدین منظور، متغیرهای تأثیرگذار بر عرضه و تقاضای محصولات کشاورزی سیستان در حوضه آبریز هیرمند طی دوره زمانی 97-1379 با استفاده از نظام معادلات هم‏زمان به روش حداقل مربعات سه­‏ مرحله­‌ای بررسی شدند. یافته‌­های تحقیق نشان داد که در بخش کشاورزی، عواملی چون سطح زیر کشت زراعی و باغی، نیروی کار، سرمایه، تقاضای آب و نیز قیمت محصولات کشاورزی اثر مثبت و معنی‌­دار بر عرضه محصولات کشاورزی داشته‌‏اند؛ همچنین، اثر عوامل جمعیت و درآمد حاصل از بخش کشاورزی بر تقاضای محصولات کشاورزی مثبت و معنی­‌دار و اثر قیمت محصولات کشاورزی بر تقاضای محصولات کشاورزی منفی و معنی‌­دار بوده است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عرضه؛ تقاضا؛ منطقه سیستان؛ برآوردگر 3SLS
عنوان مقاله [English]
Estimation of Supply and Demand Function of Agricultural Products in Hirmand Catchment of Iran
نویسندگان [English]
Neda Ali-Ahmadi1؛ ebrahim moradi2؛ seyed mehdi hosseini3؛ Ali sardar Shahraki4
1PhD Graduate in Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.
2Corresponding Author and Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
3Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.
4Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.
چکیده [English]
Introduction: The agricultural sector plays a key role in the economic planning of any country and is of prime importance to its economic and social development. One of the goals of this sector is to achieve a sustainable production growth as well as a productivity growth. The most pressing need of people is the availability of food community, the sole provider of which is the agricultural sector. Shortages or fluctuations in crop prices have been one of the major problems in Iran's economy, causing discontent for most people in the community, which is challenging the authorities, including officials' concerns about the stability of agricultural commodity prices in the market. In this study, factors affecting supply and demand of agricultural products in Hirmand catchment in Sistan region of Iran were investigated. Given the importance of supply and demand of agricultural products in this region, identifying the factors influencing the supply of products is necessary to implement effective policies in line with government decisions to expand the supply of agricultural products. Thus, the factors and variables affecting the supply and demand of agricultural products in the region can influence the factors and variables affecting the supply and demand functions of agricultural products.
Materials and Methods
Simultaneous Equations System: In this model, an endogenous variable is a function of another endogenous variable, which also requires the introduction of another equation. Accordingly, instead of a multi-equation equation (system of equations), these conditions violate the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) assumption. A simultaneous equation system is used when there are several dependent variables that are interdependent, so a system of equations or multiple equations is defined.
Results and Discussion: According to the study results, the variables entered in the agricultural supply model of Sistan region in Hirmand catchment explained the variation of dependent variable by 0.97 percent and the statistical value is 1.62. There was a positive and negative correlation while all the coefficients of the variables were significant at the one percent level; in addition, the crop and garden area coefficients, agricultural labor force, agricultural capital, water demand, and stable crop prices were estimated 1.20, 3.41, 0.95, 9.15, 0.0004, and 3.36, respectively. Based on the estimated results, the demand function of agricultural products was statistically significant. Demand for agricultural products is a function of crop prices, agricultural income and population, which the coefficient of crop price demand function was estimated negative (-30.84) while those of population and income of the agricultural sector were found to be positive (1.339 and 5.55, respectively).
Conclusion: Analysis of model estimation results showed that there was a significantly positive relation between supply and demand of agricultural products, indicating that the agricultural supply is a function of crop and garden cultivation area, labor force, capital, water demand and agricultural price. The greatest impacts were on the variables of capital, cultivation area and agricultural price on the agricultural supply. Therefore, increasing any of these variables may cause changes in the supply of products.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Supply, Demand, Sistan Region, 3SLS Estimator
مراجع
  • Abdollahi, Z.,Hooshmand, M.,Daneshnia, M. and Eskandaripour, Z.(2011). The impacts of supply and demand shocks on agriculture growth. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development (Agricultural Science and Industry), 25(4): 452-458. DOI: 10.22067/jead2.v0i0.12184. (Persian)
  • Aghaei, M. and Rezagholizadeh, M.(2015).Investigating the direct and indirect impact of energy consumption in selected economic sectors on poverty and inequality in Iran.Iran Energy Economy (Environmental and Energy Economy), 5(19): 1-51. (Persian)
  • AJSB (2019). Statistics of Agriculture-Jahad of Sistan and Baluchestan province. Zahedan: Agriculture-Jahad of Sistan and Baluchestan (AJSB). (Persian)
  • Alsaleh, M., Abdul-Rahim, A.S. and Mohd-Shahwahid. B. (2017). An empirical and forecasting analysis of the bioenergy market in the EU28 region: evidence from a panel data simultaneous equation model. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 80: 1123-1137.
  • Asady, M., Nikooghadam, M. and Harati, J. (2017). Mutual relationship between government health expenditures and economic growth in selected countries of MENA region: simultaneous equation system approach. Journal of Economics and Modeling, 8(31): 55-87. (Persian)
  • Ataei kia, E., Shahbazi, A. and Raamesht, M.H. (2016). The geomorphologic development of Chahnimes. Journal of Arid Regions Geographic Studies, 7(24): 104-118. (Persian)
  • Atrkar Roshan, S. and Hashemi, Z. (2016). The impact of trade openness on poverty in Iran: simultaneous equations system method. Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics (Applied Economics), 3(1): 183-204. (Persian)
  • Barro, R.J. (1998). Notes on growth accounting. NBER Working Paper W6654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Crist, E., Mora, C. and Engelman, R. (2017). The interaction of human population, food production, and biodiversity protection. Science, 356(6335): 260-264. DOI: 10.1126/science.aal2011.
  • Davis, K., Gephart, J.A., Emery, K.A., Leach, A.M., Galloway, J.N and Odorico, P. (2016). Meeting future food demand with current agricultural resources. Global Environmental Change, 39: 125-132.
  • Fan, C., Lin, C.Y. and Hu, M.C. (2019). Empirical framework for a relative sustainability evaluation of urbanization on the water-energy-food nexus using simultaneous equation analysis.  International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16(6): 890-901. DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16060901.
  • Gbetnkom, D. and Khan, S.A. (2002). Determinants of agricultural exports: the case of Cameroon. AERC Research Paper, 120, African Economic Research Consortium, Nairobi.
  • Ghorashi Abhari, S.J. and Borimnejad, V. (2005).  Estimation of demand and supply equations for meat in Iran using simultaneous equation system. Agricultural Economics and Development, 13(3): 65-86. DOI: 10.30490/aead.2005.58984. (Persian)
  • Golmohammadi, A and Hassini, (2019). Capacity, pricing and production under supply and demand uncertainties with an application in agriculture. European Journal of Operational Research, 275(3): 1037-1049.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3): 231-254.
  • Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2): 169-210.
  • Maddah, M. and Raoufi, F. (2018). Investigating the direct and indirect effects of government expenditure on contamination with the simultaneous equations system approach. Environmental Science and Technology, 19(4): 155-166. (Persian)
  • Mahmoudi, J. and Minaee, M.H. (2010). Using system dynamics to model rod bar supply chain in Iranian market. International Journal of Industrial Engineering and Production Research, 29: 129-135. (Persian)
  • Motahari, M., Lotfalipour, M.R. and Matin, Sh. (2016). Investigating the causal relationship between producer price index and consumer price index for the economy of Iran. The Economic Research (Sustainable Growth and Development), 16(1): 141-164. (Persian)
  • Ozolins, G., Kalnins, R. and Sile, R. (2007). Agricultural production and income dynamics in Latvia. Proceedings of the 25th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 29-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts, USA, ISBN 978-0-9745329-8-1.
  • Papaioannou, M.C. (1971). Quantitative analysis and agricultural policy with special reference to animal breeding in Greece. Agriculture et Développement, Paris: CIHEAM, pp. 66-70. (Options Méditerranéennes; n. 8). Available at http://om.ciheam.org/om/pdf/r08/CI010399.pdf.
  • Pileforushha, P., Karimi, M., Taleai, M., Farhadi Bansouleh, B. and Sharifi, M.A. (2013). Modeling the required area for agricultural products using multi-objective programming method and GIS. Journal of Applied Researches in Geographical Sciences, 13(2): 191-210. (Persian)
  • Pishbahar, A. and Rahimi, J.(2017). The impact of climatic and management scenarios on agriculture and water discharge in Iran: application of system dynamics model. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 31(1): 73-94. (Persian)
  • Raei Jadidi, M. and Sabouhi Sabouni, M. (2011). Agricultural planning using fuzzy multi-objective planning model. Journal of Sustainable Agricultural Knowledge, 2/20(1): 11-22. (Persian)
  • Rezaei, A. and Mehrara, M. (2015). The investigation of causality relationship and cointegration between government revenue and expenditure in Iran: in the presence of structural breaks. Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran (AESI), 4(13): 145-170. (Persian)
  • Sabouhi Sabouni, M. and Ahmadpour Borazjani, M. (2013). Estimating demand functions of Iranian crops using planning method (application of maximum irregularity method). Agricultural Economics, 6(1): 71-91. (Persian)
  • Sadeghi, S.K. and Jalilpour, S. (2015). The effect of budget structure on private credit in Iran (lazy banks view). Macroeconomics Research Letter, 10(20): 82-101. (Persian)
  • Samadi, A.H. and Pahlavi, M. (2010). Cointegration and structural failure in economics. Sistan and Baluchestan University: Noor Alam Publications. (Persian)
  • Simonovic, S.P. (2003). Canada water, a tool for modelling Canadian water resources. Presentation at the Canadian Commission for UNESCO (CCU), Annual General Meeting, Ottawa.
  • Sultan, N. (2020).The consistency of export and agricultural policies in Egypt. Master's Thesis, the American University in Cairo. AUC Knowledge Fountain. Available at https://fount.aucegypt.edu/etds/849.
  • Tahmasebi Khourneh, S., Eivani, F. and Ardeshiri, M.J. (2018).  An investigation of the interaction relationship between corporate reputation and financial performance by the simultaneous equation method (3SLS). Management Research in Iran, 22(1): 119- 141. (Persian)
  • Vira, V. and Narnicka, K. (2003). Semi-subsistence farming in Latvia: its production function and what will be the impact of proposed EU support? In: SSE Riga Working Papers.
  • Ward, F.A., Booker, J.F. and Michelsen A.M. (2006). Integrated economics, hydrologic, and institutional analysis of policy responses to mitigate drought impacts in Rio Grande basin. ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 132(6). DOI: 1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2006)132:6(488).
  • Zhang, Z.W.X., Zhao, Y. and Song, W.B. (2014). Development tendency analysis and evaluation of the water ecological carrying capacity in the Siping area of Jilin province in China based on system dynamics and analytic hierarchy process. Ecological Modelling, 275: 9-21.
  • Zhou, Y and Staatz, J. (2016). Projected demand and supply for various foods in West Africa: implications for investments and food policy. Food Policy, Elsevier, 61(C): 198-212.
  • Ziaei, S. and Sabouhi Sabouni, M. (2009). Optimization of crop pattern using fuzzy ideal planning approach to the permissible changes approach: a case study of Neyshabour County. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 3(1): 221-229. (Persian)
آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 355
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 425


counter
سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. طراحی و پیاده سازی از سیناوب