| تعداد نشریات | 286 |
| تعداد نشریات سازمان | 84 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 3,014 |
| تعداد مقالات | 33,695 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 44,897,902 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 43,639,273 |
بررسی آثار سیاست حذف ارز ترجیحی بر شاخص قیمت‌ها و هزینة زندگی خانوارها در سال 1401 | ||
| اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه | ||
| مقاله 7، دوره 30، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 120، اسفند 1401، صفحه 171-196 اصل مقاله (1.16 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30490/aead.2023.358935.1444 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| زورار پرمه* 1؛ علیرضا گرشاسبی2 | ||
| 1نویسندة مسئول و استادیار مؤسسة مطالعات و پژوهش‌های بازرگانی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 2دانشیار مؤسسة مطالعات و پژوهش‌های بازرگانی، تهران، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| نوسان های نرخ ارز در ایران به‌صورت مستقیم بر قیمت‌های داخلی از مجاری واردات نهاده‌های واسطه‌ای و کالاهای مصرفی اثر دارد. با تشدید تحریم‌ها، از سال 1397، یکی از سیاست‌های ویژة تأمین کالاهای مصرفی جامعه تخصیص ارز ترجیحی به واردات کالاهای اساسی بوده است. با این همه، تعداد کالاهای مشمول این سیاست در طول زمان کاهش یافت، تا آنکه در ابتدای سال 1401، تنها چند کالا مشمول این سیاست بودند. سیاست حذف ارز ترجیحی کالاهای اساسی در سال 1401، به‌سبب افزایش هزینه‌های واردات و نیز تغییر قیمت سایر کالاها، بر شاخص قیمت‌ها و هزینه زندگی خانوارها اثرگذار است. در پژوهش حاضر، برای بررسی آثار افزایش قیمت کالاهای اساسی شامل محصولات دام و طیور (نهاده‌های دامی) و نیز روغن خوراکی، از ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی سال 1395 استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که افزایش قیمت محصولات دام و طیور و روغن نباتی، به ترتیب، موجب افزایش 4/5 و 8/7 واحد درصدی شاخص قیمت خواهد شد و شاخص هزینه زندگی خانوارها نیز 9/9 درصد (تعدیل کامل قیمت‌ها) و 9/8 درصد (با تعدیل قیمت‌ها تنها در 57 فعالیت در ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی) خواهد بود. همچنین، اثر افزایش قیمت نهاده‌های دامی و روغن نباتی بر شاخص هزینه زندگی خانوارهایی با سطح درآمدی پایین‌تر به‌مراتب بیشتر است. از سوی دیگر، تأثیر افزایش قیمت محصولات دام و طیور بر هزینه زندگی خانوارها شدیدتر از حذف ارز ترجیحی روغن است. افزون بر این، از آنجا که واحدهای تولیدی در بخش دام و طیور خرد و کوچک به شمار می روند، در اثر حذف ارز ترجیحی، سرمایه در گردش آنها تنها برای خرید دان بیش از پنج برابر افزایش خواهد یافت. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| ارز ترجیحی؛ کالاهای اساسی؛ ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی؛ شاخص قیمت‌ها و هزینه زندگی خانوارها | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Investigating the Effects of Eliminating the Preferred Exchange Rate on Price Index and Cost of Living for Iranian Households in 2022 | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| zorar Permeh1؛ Alireza Gharshasebi2 | ||
| 1Corresponding Author and Assistant Professor, Institute of Business Studies and Research, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Institute of Business Studies and Research, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Exchange rate fluctuations in the Iranian economy directly affect domestic prices through import channels of intermediate inputs and final consumer goods. Since 2018, following the intensification of US sanctions, one of the special policies of providing consumer goods to the society has been the allocation of preferential exchange to the import of basic goods. However, the number of goods subject to this policy decreased over time, until at the mid of 2022, only a few goods were subject to this policy. The policy of removing the preferential exchange of basic goods in 2022 has some effects on the price index and the cost of living of Iranian households due to the increase in import costs and also the price change of other goods. In the this research, the social accounting matrix of 2016 was used to investigate the effects of the increase in the price of basic goods, including livestock and poultry products (livestock inputs) and edible oil. The results showed that the increase in the price of livestock and poultry products and vegetable oil would increase the price index by 5.4 and 7.8 percentage units, respectively; and the household cost of living index would increase by 9.9 percent (full adjustment of prices) and 9.8 percent (with price adjustment in only 57 activities in the social accounting matrix). Also, the effect of the increase in the price of animal inputs and vegetable oil on the index of the cost of living of households with a lower income level was found to be much higher. On the other hand, the effect of the increase in the price of livestock and poultry products on the cost of living of households was estimated more severe than the removal of the preferential exchange obtained from oil exports. In addition, since the production units in the livestock and poultry sector are few and small, as a result of the removal of the preferential exchange, their working capital would increase more than five times just for the purchase of feed. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Exchange Rate, Social Accounting Matrix, Price Index and Household Cost of Living | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Armanmehr, M., and Farahmandmanesh, A. (2017). Studying the Effect of Price Changes on the Welfare of Urban Households Disaggregated By Income Deciles and Commodity Groups. Economic Modeling,11, 49-74 (in persian). Banoee, A. (2002). Investigating the effects and consequences of exchange rate unification in different markets of the Iranian economy using the social accounting matrix model. Tehran: Parlimant Research's Center. Fouladi, M. (2012). effect of exchange rate changes on the level of prices, production, exports and imports of different economic sectors using a general equilibrium model. Planning and budgeting, 127-148 (in persian). Gharshasebi, A. (2014). Targeting subsidies in Iran: The pathology of law enforcement in the first stage Predicting the effects in the second stage. Tehran (in persian).: Institute for Trade Studies and Research. Gilanpour, O., kohansal, M., Permeh, Z., and Esmaeilipour, E. (2012). Investigation of government intervention in the chicken meat market. Iranian Journal of Trade Studies, 63, 137-168 (in persian). Z., A. M. (2018). Review of the 2019 budget bill of the country. Evaluate the results of Exchange rate allocation with preferential rates and corrective proposals. Tehran (in persian): Parlimant Research's Center. Z., Shabaziyan, A., and Abdollahi, M. (2019). Supportive alternative Exchange rate policy. Tehran (in persian): Parlimant Research's Center. Keshavarz, K., Najafi, B., Andayesh, Y., Rezapour, A., Abolhallaj, M., Sarabi Asiabar, A., . . . Lotfi, F. (2017). Social accounting matrix and the effects of economic reform on health price index and household expenditures: Evidence from Iran. Medical Journal of the Islamic Republic Of Iran, 31, 391-395(in persian). Khalilyan, S., Belali, H., and Bikzadeh, S. (2002). Analysis of exchange rate trends due to liberalization policy and its effect on chicken meat prices. Paghohesh and Sazandaghi, 15, 53-57 (persian). Misdawita, M., Hartono, D., and Nugroho, N. (2019). Impacts of Food Prices on the Economy: Social Accounting Matrix and Microsimulation Approach in Indonesia. Impacts of Food Prices on the Economy. Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies,31, 137-154. Permeh, Z. (2006). Effects of rising commodity prices on price levels using social accounting matrix. Sustainable growth and development research (economic research), 15, 51-64 (in persian). Pyatt, G., and Round, J. I. (1977). social accounting matrices for development planning. The reivew of income and wealth, 23, 339-364. Roland-Holst, D. W., and Sancho, F. (1995). Modeling prices in a SAM structure. The Review of Economics and Statistics,77, 361-371. Sarabi, Z., Ansari, V., Salami, H., and Hosseini, S. S. (2020). Analyzing the Effect of Increase in Exchange Rate on Cost Price of Agricultural Products. Rural of Agricultural Economics and Development, 34, 201-221 (in persian). Sirvavastava, D. k., Sen.K., Mukhopadhyay, H., Bahujanga Rao, C., and Amar Nath, H. (1997). Governments Subsidies in India. New Dehli: National Institute of Public Finance and Policy. Statistical Center of Iran. (1399). Results of the census of laying hens. Tehran: Statistical Center of Iran. Statistical Center of Iran. (1399). Results of the survey plan of broiler farms. Tehran: Statistical Center of Iran. Statistical Center of Iran. (2015-2019). Household Expenditure and Income Plan. Tehran: Statistical Center of Iran. Taheri, E., and Shabanzadeh, M. (2022). Preferential Currency Subsidy and its Effect on the Control of Essential Commodity Prices (Case Study: Iranian Chicken Meat Market. Quartrly Jouranl of Applied Economics Studies, 40, 281-311(in persian). Thorbecke, E. (2000). The use of social accounting matrix in modeling. the 26th general conference of the international association for research in income and wealth, (pp. 1-47). Cracow, Poland. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 579 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 292 |
||