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عباسی, فریبا, مقدسی, رضا, کیانی راد, علی. (1400). بررسی اثر آزادسازی تجاری بر رشد و تجارت کشاورزی ایران: کاربرد الگوی مارکوف- سوئیچینگ. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 29(4), 53-87. doi: 10.30490/aead.2022.353489.1313
فریبا عباسی; رضا مقدسی; علی کیانی راد. "بررسی اثر آزادسازی تجاری بر رشد و تجارت کشاورزی ایران: کاربرد الگوی مارکوف- سوئیچینگ". سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 29, 4, 1400, 53-87. doi: 10.30490/aead.2022.353489.1313
عباسی, فریبا, مقدسی, رضا, کیانی راد, علی. (1400). 'بررسی اثر آزادسازی تجاری بر رشد و تجارت کشاورزی ایران: کاربرد الگوی مارکوف- سوئیچینگ', سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 29(4), pp. 53-87. doi: 10.30490/aead.2022.353489.1313
عباسی, فریبا, مقدسی, رضا, کیانی راد, علی. بررسی اثر آزادسازی تجاری بر رشد و تجارت کشاورزی ایران: کاربرد الگوی مارکوف- سوئیچینگ. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 1400; 29(4): 53-87. doi: 10.30490/aead.2022.353489.1313

بررسی اثر آزادسازی تجاری بر رشد و تجارت کشاورزی ایران: کاربرد الگوی مارکوف- سوئیچینگ

اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
مقاله 3، دوره 29، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 116، اسفند 1400، صفحه 53-87    اصل مقاله (803.44 K)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30490/aead.2022.353489.1313
نویسندگان
فریبا عباسی1؛ رضا مقدسی* 2؛ علی کیانی راد3
1دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد، ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
2نویسنده مسئول و دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد، ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
3استادیار مؤسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعة روستایی، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
ایران از سال 1995 در تلاش است که رژیم تجاری خود ار آزاد کند تا عملکرد رشد و تجارت بالاتری داشته باشد. با وجود دوره طولانی آزادسازی، واردات هنوز هم سریع تر از صادرات رشد می کند و کسری تجارت را افزایش می­دهد. از این‏رو، پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی اثرات آزادسازی تجاری بر رشد و تجارت محصولات کشاورزی با استفاده از رویکرد الگوی مارکوف- سوئیچینگ و داده­ های سری زمانی سالانه (از1979 تا 2018) انجام شد. نتایج نشان داد که آزادسازی، از طریق کاهش نرخ تعرفه واردات، در کوتاه‏مدت، صادرات را به میزان 1/56درصد افزایش می­دهد؛ اما در بلندمدت، میزان واردات حدود 65/7 درصد کاهش می­یابد. همچنین، نتایج تخمین الگوی رشد نشان داد که شاخص آزادسازی در هر دو رژیم اثر مثبت و معنی‏دار بر رشد کشاورزی دارد، بدین معنی که اعمال سیاست آزادسازی تجاری در دوره مورد مطالعه به میزان 1/981 درصد تأثیر مثبت بر رشد بخش کشاورزی داشته است. بنابراین، آزادسازی تجاری در کوتاه‌مدت منجر به رشد در صادرات می‏ شود و در بلندمدت نیز با افزایش تولید، به افزایش حجم صادرات و کاهش واردات و از این‏رو، به رشد اقتصادی می‏انجامد. با توجه به نتایج به‌دست‌آمده و به‌منظور افزایش توان تجارت در بخش کشاورزی، پیشنهاد می­ شود که تنظیم سیاست­ های تعرف ه­ای در خصوص آزادسازی تجاری همگام و مطابق با اهداف برنامه ­های سند چشم‌انداز انجام شده و شرایط لازم برای حفظ قدرت چانه زنی در مذاکرات تجاری آتی نیز مورد توجه قرار گیرد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
آزادسازی تجاری؛ تجارت کشاورزی؛ رشد اقتصادی؛ مارکوف سوییچینگ؛ ایران
عنوان مقاله [English]
Investigating the Effect of Trade Liberalization on Agricultural Growth and Trade in Iran: Application of Markov-Switching Model
نویسندگان [English]
F. Abbasi1؛ R. Moghaddasi2؛ A. Kianirad3
1Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Education, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Education, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
3Assistant Professor, Agricultural Planning, Economics, and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]
Since 1995, Iran has been striving to liberalize its trade regime in order to increase its growth and trade performance. Despite a long period of liberalization, imports are still growing faster than exports, widening the trade deficit. Therefore, this study aimed mainly at investigating the effects of trade liberalization on the growth and trade of agricultural products using the Markov-switching model approach and annual time series data (from 1986 to 2018). The results showed that liberalization, by reducing the import tariff rate, increased exports by 1.56 percent in the short run, but reduced imports by about 7.65 percent in the long run. In addition, the results of growth pattern estimation showed that the liberalization index in both regimes had a significantly positive effect on agricultural growth, meaning that the implementation of trade liberalization policy in the studied period had a positive effect on agricultural growth by 1.98 percent. Thus, trade liberalization in the short run leads to growth in exports and in the long run, by increasing production, increases the volume of exports and decreases imports, and hence, leads to economic growth. According to the obtained results, in order to increase the trade potential of the agricultural sector, it is suggested that tariff policies on trade liberalization be developed in line with the objectives of the Perspective Document Programs of the country.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Trade Liberalization, Agricultural Trade, Economic Growth, Markov-Switching, Iran
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