اخبار و اعلانات

 آمار

تعداد نشریات282
تعداد نشریات سازمان80
تعداد شماره‌ها3,168
تعداد مقالات35,197
تعداد مشاهده مقاله50,952,483
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله90,954,998
موسوی, سید حبیب الله, فیضی, ایمان, خلیلیان, صادق. (1398). ارزیابی آثار منطقه‌ای سیاست قیمت تضمینی گندم ایران. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 27(3), 47-77. doi: 10.30490/aead.2020.252525.0
سید حبیب الله موسوی; ایمان فیضی; صادق خلیلیان. "ارزیابی آثار منطقه‌ای سیاست قیمت تضمینی گندم ایران". سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 27, 3, 1398, 47-77. doi: 10.30490/aead.2020.252525.0
موسوی, سید حبیب الله, فیضی, ایمان, خلیلیان, صادق. (1398). 'ارزیابی آثار منطقه‌ای سیاست قیمت تضمینی گندم ایران', سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 27(3), pp. 47-77. doi: 10.30490/aead.2020.252525.0
موسوی, سید حبیب الله, فیضی, ایمان, خلیلیان, صادق. ارزیابی آثار منطقه‌ای سیاست قیمت تضمینی گندم ایران. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 1398; 27(3): 47-77. doi: 10.30490/aead.2020.252525.0

ارزیابی آثار منطقه‌ای سیاست قیمت تضمینی گندم ایران

اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
مقاله 3، دوره 27، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 107، آذر 1398، صفحه 47-77    اصل مقاله (496.83 K)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30490/aead.2020.252525.0
نویسندگان
سید حبیب الله موسوی* 1؛ ایمان فیضی2؛ صادق خلیلیان3
1دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.
2دانش ‏آموخته کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
3دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
در مطالعة حاضر، با استفاده از الگوی تعادل فضایی قیمت‌ها، آثار اتخاذ سیاست قیمت تضمینی در بازار محصول گندم در سطوح استانی و کشوری بررسی شد. نتایج نشان داد که افزایش ده تا پنجاه درصدی قیمت تضمینی گندم طی پنج سناریو به افزایش 68/1 تا 11/8 درصدی عرضه و 109 تا 555 درصدی مازاد رفاه تولیدکنندگان می‌انجامد و مخارج دولت را نیز به میزان هجده تا 88 درصد افزایش می‌دهد. تغییرات یادشده، در نهایت، موجب کاهش رفاه اجتماعی به میزان 51 تا 228 درصد می‌شود، که نمایانگر عدم کارآیی این ابزار حمایتی در راستای افزایش رفاه جامعه است. همچنین، بر اساس نتایج تحقیق، می‌توان دریافت که ساختار بازار گندم در استان‌های کشور و در نتیجه، حساسیت استان‌ها نسبت به افزایش قیمت تضمینی در زمینة تمامی شاخص‌های رفاهی و بازاری متفاوت است. از این‏رو، سیاست قیمت تضمینی با تعیین قیمت یکسان بین استان‌ها از کارآیی مناسب برخوردار نخواهد بود و لازم است در هر استان، قیمت تضمینی با توجه به کشش تولید تعیین شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
الگوی تعادل فضایی؛ رفاه اجتماعی؛ قیمت تضمینی؛ گندم؛ ایران
عنوان مقاله [English]
Assessing the regional impacts of Iranian wheat support price policies
نویسندگان [English]
S.H. Mousavi1؛ I. Feyzi2؛ S. Khalilian3
1Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modarres University, Tehran, Iran
2MSc Graduate in Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modarres University, Tehran, Iran.
3Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modarres University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]
This study aimed at evaluating the regional and countrywide impacts of wheat support price regimes, using spatial price equilibrium model. The study results showed that increasing support price from 10 to 50 percent in five scenarios would lead to the increase in supply quantity by 1.68-8.1 percent and producer welfare by 109-555 percent as well as an increase in government outlay by 18-88 percent; in addition, these policies would decrease social welfare in the range of 51 to 228 percent, indicating the inefficiency of this policy approach. Also, the results revealed that provincial markets had different reactions to these policies in their mean prices, quantities and welfare changes. Therefore, adopting the same guaranteed price policies for wheat would not have suitable supportive effects across regions and the unique support price among provinces would be inefficient, rather these policies should be imposed relative to regional production elasticity’s.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Social Welfare, Support Price, Wheat, Spatial Equilibrium Model (SEM), Iran (Provinces)
مراجع
  1. Alston, J.M. and James, J.S. (2002). The incidence of agricultural policy. In: Gardner, B.L. and Rausser, G.C. (Eds), Agricultural and Food Policy: Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 2B. North-Holland, Amsterdam.
  2. Anonymous (2015). Agricultural statistics: crops, farming year of 2013-14 (Vol. 1). Tehran: Ministry of Agriculture - Jahad, Deputy of Planning and Economics, Information and Communication Technology Center. (Persian)
  3. Anonymous (2016). Agricultural exports and imports. Tehran: Ministry of Agriculture - Jahad, Deputy of Planning and Economics, ICT Center. (Persian)
  4. Anonymous (2016). Agricultural statistics: crops, farming year of 2013-14 (Vol. 1). Tehran: Ministry of Agriculture - Jahad, Deputy of Planning and Economics, Information and Communication Technology Center. (Persian)
  5. Anonymous (2017). Report of Commercial Services and Grain Companies of Iranian Regions. Tehran: Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade, Government Trading Corporation of Iran. Available at http://gtc-portal.com. (Persian)
  6. Anonymous (2017). Statistics of synoptic stations of Iran. National Meteorological Organization, General Meteorological Department of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province. Available at http://www.chaharmahalmet.ir. (Persian)
  7. Arfini, F.. Donati, M., Grossi, L. and Paris, Q. (2008). Revenue and cost functions in PMP: a methodological integration for a territorial analysis of CAP. 107th EAAE Seminar on Modelling of Agricultural and Rural Development Policies. Sevilla, Spain, January.
  8. Bakhshoodeh, M. (2001). Forecasting the impacts of removing government interference from the wheat market. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 9(35): 161-176. (Persian)
  9. Behbood, A. and Najafi, B. (2011). Effect of protection policies of government on production of sunflower seeds in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 3(10): 133-146. (Persian)
  10. Cakmak, E.H. (2003). Evaluation of the past and future agricultural policies in Turkey: are they capable to achieve sustainability. Options Mediterraneennes, 155-165.
  11. Caputo, M.R. and Paris, Q. (2008) Comparative statics of the generalized maximum entropy estimator of the general linear model. European Journal of Operational Research, 185(1): 195-203.
  12. Carriquiry, M. and Elobeid, A. (2016). Analyzing the impact of Chinese wheat support policies on U.S. and global wheat production, trade and prices. A Study Prepared for the U.S. Wheat Associates. Global Agricultural Market and Policy Research Services.
  13. Devadoss, S. (2013). Ad valorem tariff and spatial equilibrium models. Applied Economics, 45(23): 3378-3386.
  14. Devadoss, S., Sridharan, P. and Wahl, T. (2009). Effects of trade barriers on U.S. and world apple markets. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 57: 55-73.
  15. Enke, S. (1951). Equilibrium among spatially separated markets: solution by electric analogue. Econometrica, 19: 40-47.
  16. Ferris, M.C. and Munson, T.S. (2000). Complementarity problems in GAMS and the PATH solver. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 24(2): 165-188.
  17. Fraser, I. (2000). An application of maximum entropy estimation: the demand for meat in the United Kingdom. Applied Economics, 32(1): 45-59.
  18. Hazell, P.B.R. and Norton, R.D. (1986). Mathematical programming for economic analysis in agriculture. New York: Macmillan.
  19. Hosseini, S.S. and Shahnabati, N. (2015). Considering the distributional effect of agricultural policies in provinces of Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 9(1): 1-18. (Persian)
  20. Hosseini, S.S., Dourandish, A. and Salami, H. (2010). Evaluation of Iranian government protection policy in wheat market. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 3(4): 95-120. (Persian)
  21. Huang, Q., Howitt, R. and Rozelle, S. (2012) Estimating production technology for policy analysis: trading off precision and heterogeneity. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 38(2): 219-233.
  22. Kozicka, M., Kalkuhl, M. and Brockhaus, J. (2017). Food grain policies in India and their implications for stocks and fiscal costs: a dynamic partial equilibrium analysis. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 68(1): 98-122.
  23. Laajimi, A., Schroeder, K., Meyers, W. and Binfield, J. (2016). The Tunisia wheat market in the context of world price volatility: a stochastic partial equilibrium approach. Journal of Food Products Marketing, 1540-4102.
  24. Marsh, T.L. and Mittelhammer, R.C. (2004). Generalized maximum entropy estimation of a first order spatial autoregressive model. Advances in Econometrics, 18: 199-234.
  25. Mousavi, S.H. (2014). Positive agricultural and food trade model with Ad Valorem tariffs. Journal of Agr. Sci. Tech., 16: 1481-1492.
  26. Mousavi, S.H. and Esmaeili, A. (2011). Analysis of increasing rice import tariff on welfare and poverty of the Iranian rural and urban regions. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 5(3): 143-167. (Persian)
  27. Mousavi, S.H. and Esmaeili, A. (2012). Self-sufficiency versus free trade: the case of rice in Iran. Journal of International Food & Agribusiness Marketing, 24(1): 76-90.
  28. Mousavi, S.H., Bakhshoodeh, M. and Azhdari, S. (2012). A welfare analysis of the government interventions in wheat market and its influence on barley: game theory approach. Journal of Economics and Agricultural Development, 26(2): 106-116. (Persian)
  29. Nagurney, A. and Zhao, L. (1993). Variational inequalities and networks in the formulation and computation of market equilibria and disequilibria: the case of direct demand functions. Transportation Science, 27(1): 4-15.
  30. Najafi, B. (2001). Investigating government policies on wheat: challenges and approaches. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 9(34): 7-31. (Persian)
  31. Nikoukar, A., Hosseini, S.S. and Dourandish, A. (2011). The effects of optimal combination of policy tools on bread consumers in different income groups. Journal of Economics and Agricultural Development, 24(4): 456-470. (Persian)
  32. Paris, Q. (2011). Economic foundations of symmetric programming. Cambridge University Press.
  33. Peeters, L.M. (2004). Estimating a random-coefficients sample-selection model using generalized maximum entropy. Economics Letters, 84(1): 87-92.
  34. Pires, C., Dionisio, A. and Coelho, L. (2010). GME versus OLS: which is the best to estimate utility functions? CEFAGE-UE Working-Papers, 2.
  35. Sabouhi, M. and Ahmadpour, M. (2012). Estimation of Iran’s agricultural products demand functions using mathematical programming (application of maximum entropy method). Journal of Agricultural Economics, 6(1): 71-91. (Persian)
  36. Samuelson, P.A. (1952). Spatial price equilibrium and linear programming. The American Economic Review, 283-303.
  37. Shen, E.Z. and Perloff, J.M. (2001). Maximum entropy and Bayesian approaches to the ratio problem. Journal of Econometrics, 104(2): 289-313.
  38. Soltani, Sh. and Mousavi, S.H. (2015). Evaluating the potential effects of climate changes on yield and value-added in the agricultural sector in Hamedan-Bahar Plain. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 9(1): 95-115. (Persian)
  39. Ta'ali Moghaddam, A., Shahnoushi Foroushani, N., Mousavi, S.H. and Dourandish, A. (2015). The impacts of wheat's guaranteed price on its production in Iran, Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 23(90): 113-142. (Persian)
  40. Takayama, T. and Judge, G.G. (1964). Spatial equilibrium and quadratic programming. Journal of Farm Economics, 46: 67-93.
  41. Wu, X. (2009). A weighted generalized maximum entropy estimator with a data-driven weight. Entropy, 11: 917-930.
  42. Yousofi, H. and Moghaddasi, R. (2013). World price transmission to domestic agricultural markets: cases of wheat, barley and rice. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 5(17): 81-99. (Persian)
  43. Zhang, X. and Fan, S. (2001). Estimating crop-specific production technologies in Chinese agriculture: a generalized maximum entropy approach. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 83(2): 378-388.
آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 813
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 423


counter
سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. طراحی و پیاده سازی از سیناوب