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Understanding PPR Transmission Dynamics: A Network Analysis Approach in Pastoral and Agropastoral Communities in Tanzania | ||
| Archives of Razi Institute | ||
| دوره 81، شماره 3، مرداد و شهریور 2026، صفحه 775-796 اصل مقاله (3.09 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Original Articles | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.32598/ARI.80.5.3402 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Julius Joseph Mwanandota* 1؛ Daniel Mdetele2؛ Obed Malangu Nyasebwa2؛ Devine Ekwem3؛ Edward Okoth4؛ Eunice Machuka5؛ George Omondi Paul6؛ Augustino Chengula7؛ Sharadhuli Kimera7؛ Satya Parida8؛ Gerald Misinzo9 | ||
| 1Tanzania Veterinary Laboratory Agency, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. | ||
| 2Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries, Dodoma, Tanzania. | ||
| 3Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary & Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, England. | ||
| 4International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya. | ||
| 5International Livestock Research Institute, P.O. Box 30709, Nairobi 00100, Kenya | ||
| 6College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul,United States. | ||
| 7College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Morogoro, Tanzania. | ||
| 8Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy. | ||
| 9SACIDS Africa Centre of Excellence for Infectious Diseases, SACIDS Foundation for One Health, Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA), Morogoro, Tanzania. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| Introduction: Unregulated livestock movements pose a significant risk for the spread of diseases, threatening animal health and productivity. These movements have been cited as a potential driver of the spatial and temporal dynamics of disease spread in the country. However, a formal evaluation of peste des petits ruminants (PPR) spread linked to livestock migration is lacking. This study investigated the extent to which PPR spread can be attributed to livestock movement, while accounting for risk factors such as production system, livestock population, geographical location and season. Materials & Methods: Data on livestock movement from Tanzania were collected to create network patterns illustrating the risk of PPR circulation across geographical areas and agroecological systems. Results: Results demonstrate a notable variation in network structure. Compared to movement driven by seasonal variation, trade-related movement extended up to 600 km. Additionally, during the dry season, animals travel longer distances than in the wet season. The probability of contracting PPR infection was found to be half for households with outgoing livestock (outdegree), indicating a lower risk of infection compared to households with more incoming livestock (indegree). The network pattern shows scale-free properties, with negative and near- zero assortative mixing in pastoral and agropastoral societies, respectively. Conclusion: These findings suggest that pastoral communities in northern Tanzania are prone to PPR infections, suggesting control methods targeting high-potential households in pastoral communities and districts with high livestock populations. The study suggests targeting the pastoral production system in these areas to impede PPR spread. Future research should emphasize dynamic modeling and targeted control interventions. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Pastoral؛ Agropastoral؛ Livestock movement؛ Scale-free property؛ Network analysis؛ Peste des petits ruminants (PPR)؛ Short cycle stock | ||
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