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پیشبینی رویشگاه آویشن Thymus kotschyanus بر اساس عوامل محیطی با مدلسازی رگرسیون لجستیک(مطالعه موردی: دولانیه، پیرانشهر) | ||
| تحقیقات مرتع و بیابان ایران | ||
| دوره 33، شماره 2، تیر 1405، صفحه 191-200 | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/ijrdr.2026.135838 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سمیه سوری1؛ شهریار دشتی* 2؛ یوسف اجنی3؛ اسماعیل کریمی4؛ الهام نوری5 | ||
| 1دانشجوی اکولوژی گیاهان زراعی، گروه مهندسی تولید و ژنتیک گیاهی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه مراغه، آذربایجان شرقی، ایران | ||
| 2استادیار گروه مهندسی تولید و ژنتیک گیاهی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه مراغه | ||
| 3استادیار پژوهشی،مؤسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 4استادیار، گروه مهندسی تولید و ژنتیک گیاهی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه مراغه، آذربایجان شرقی، ایران | ||
| 5کارشناس محقق ،مؤسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| چکیده سابقه و هدف عوامل محیطی میتواند تأثیر زیادی بر پراکنش گونههای گیاهی داشته باشد. پیشبینی رویشگاه گونهها نیازمند شناخت این اثرات است. آویشن از مهمترین جنسهای خانواده نعناعیان با ۲۱۵ گونه است که بهطور گسترده در جهان، خصوصاً منطقه مدیترانه، پراکنش دارد. هدف پژوهش حاضر پیشبینی رویشگاه گونه Thymus kotschyanus با استفاده از مدل رگرسیون لجستیک و روشهای درونیابی در منطقه دولانیه شهرستان پیرانشهر است. مواد و روشها متغیرهای توپوگرافی شامل ارتفاع از سطح دریا، درصد شیب و جهت شیب از مدل ارتفاع رقومی (DEM) منطقه و پارامترهای اقلیمی شامل متوسط درجه حرارت و بارندگی برای ایستگاه سینوپتیک دولانیه استخراج شد. تعداد 94 نقطهی حضور و عدم حضور گونه آویشن بهصورت سیستماتیک تصادفی نمونهبرداری شد. برای بررسی رابطه بین حضور گونه و عوامل محیطی از روش رگرسیون لجستیک دوتایی در نرمافزار SPSS استفاده شد. تغییرات مکانی احتمال حضور گونه نیز با استفاده از روشهای درونیابی قطعی و زمینآماری بررسی شد نتایج نتایج نشان داد احتمال حضور آویشن با متغیرهای عرض جغرافیایی، جهت شیب، عرض برگ، درصد کربن آلی خاک، کربنات کلسیم، مس، متوسط بارندگی ماهانه و سالانه، درصد شن و رس رابطه معکوسی دارند. درحالیکه متغیرهای شیب، طول برگ، ارتفاع گیاه، هدایت الکتریکی، pH، روی، آهن و متوسط دما با احتمال حضور آویشن رابطه مستقیمی دارند. احتمال حضور آویشن در مناطق خشک و نیمهخشک با شیب مناسب افزایش مییابد. توزیع مکانی احتمال حضور نشان داد شرق منطقه بیشترین احتمال حضور آویشن را دارد و از شرق به سمت جنوب غرب کاهش مییابد. در بیشتر مناطق احتمال حضور کمتر از 25/0 است و در بخشهای کوچکی احتمال حضور نزدیک به یک است. نتیجهگیری با توجه به نتایج بهدستآمده از مدلهای رگرسیونی که نشاندهنده تأثیر معنادار عوامل محیطی مانند ارتفاع، شیب، جهت جغرافیایی و بارش بر پراکنش گونه آویشن T. kotschyanus در مراتع منطقه است، میتوان از این مدلها بهعنوان ابزار مؤثری برای شناسایی رویشگاه و ترسیم حدود جغرافیایی پراکنش اینگونه استفاده کرد. بهویژه با توجه به افزایش حضور آویشن در شرق منطقه و کاهش محسوس آن در جنوب غرب، نتایج این پژوهش میتواند مبنای علمی مناسبی برای تدوین برنامههای مدیریتی چرا و توسعه کشت آویشن متناسب باقابلیتهای طبیعی هر ناحیه فراهم آورد و به حفاظت و بهرهبرداری پایدار ازاینگونه ارزشمند کمک نماید. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| بومشناسی؛ بومسازگانهای پایدار؛ مدلسازی رویشگاه؛ مدلهای رگرسیونی؛ مدیریت مرتع | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Habitat Prediction of Thymus kotschyanus Based on Environmental Factors Using Logistic Regression and Interpolation (Case Study: Dolanieh Habitat in Piranshahr County) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Somayyeh Souri1؛ Shahryar Dashti2؛ Yousef Ajani3؛ Esmaeil Karimi4؛ Elham Noori5 | ||
| 1Ph.D Student, Department of Plant production and Genetics. Faculty of Agriculture, University of Maragheh, East Azarbaijan, Iran | ||
| 2Assistant Professor, Department of Plant Production Engineering and Genetics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Maragheh | ||
| 33- Assistant Prof., Botany Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran | ||
| 4Assistant Professor, Department of Plant Production and Genetics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Maragheh, East Azarbaijan | ||
| 5Researcher, Forests, Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Abstract Background and Objectives Environmental factors can significantly influence the distribution of plant species. Predicting suitable habitats for species requires a thorough understanding of these influences. Thymus is one of the most important genera in the Lamiaceae family, comprising over 215 species widely distributed across the world, particularly in the Mediterranean region. The present study aims to predict the habitat suitability of Thymus kotschyanus using logistic regression modeling and spatial interpolation methods in the Dolaniyeh region of Piranshahr County. Materials and Methods Topographic variables including elevation, slope, and aspect were derived from the region’s Digital Elevation Model (DEM), while climatic parameters such as average temperature and precipitation were obtained from the Dolanaya synoptic station. A total of 94 presence and absence points of Thymus kotschyanus were systematically and randomly sampled. Binary logistic regression was used in SPSS software to evaluate the relationship between species presence and environmental factors. Spatial variation in habitat suitability was assessed using deterministic and geostatistical interpolation techniques. Results The results indicated that the probability of T. kotschyanus presence had a negative relationship with variables such as latitude, slope aspect, leaf width, soil organic carbon, calcium carbonate, copper, and mean monthly and annual precipitation, as well as sand and clay content. In contrast, variables such as slope, leaf length, plant height, electrical conductivity, pH, zinc, iron, and average temperature showed a positive relationship with the probability of species presence. The likelihood of Thymus presence increases in arid and semi-arid areas with suitable slopes. Spatial distribution mapping revealed that the eastern part of the study area had the highest probability of presence, which gradually decreased toward the southwest. In most parts of the region, the probability of presence was below 0.25, while in a few localized areas, it approached 1.00. Conclusion Based on the results of the regression models, which showed significant effects of environmental variables such as elevation, slope, aspect, and precipitation on the distribution of T. kotschyanus in the study area, these models can serve as effective tools for identifying potential habitats and mapping the species’ geographic range. Considering the increased presence in the eastern region and a notable decline in the southwest, the findings of this study provide a scientific foundation for grazing management strategies and cultivation planning of T. kotschyanus tailored to the ecological capacity of different zones, contributing to the sustainable utilization and conservation of this valuable medicinal species. Abstract Background and Objectives Environmental factors can significantly influence the distribution of plant species. Predicting suitable habitats for species requires a thorough understanding of these influences. Thymus is one of the most important genera in the Lamiaceae family, comprising over 215 species widely distributed across the world, particularly in the Mediterranean region. The present study aims to predict the habitat suitability of Thymus kotschyanus using logistic regression modeling and spatial interpolation methods in the Dolaniyeh region of Piranshahr County. Materials and Methods Topographic variables including elevation, slope, and aspect were derived from the region’s Digital Elevation Model (DEM), while climatic parameters such as average temperature and precipitation were obtained from the Dolanaya synoptic station. A total of 94 presence and absence points of Thymus kotschyanus were systematically and randomly sampled. Binary logistic regression was used in SPSS software to evaluate the relationship between species presence and environmental factors. Spatial variation in habitat suitability was assessed using deterministic and geostatistical interpolation techniques. Results The results indicated that the probability of T. kotschyanus presence had a negative relationship with variables such as latitude, slope aspect, leaf width, soil organic carbon, calcium carbonate, copper, and mean monthly and annual precipitation, as well as sand and clay content. In contrast, variables such as slope, leaf length, plant height, electrical conductivity, pH, zinc, iron, and average temperature showed a positive relationship with the probability of species presence. The likelihood of Thymus presence increases in arid and semi-arid areas with suitable slopes. Spatial distribution mapping revealed that the eastern part of the study area had the highest probability of presence, which gradually decreased toward the southwest. In most parts of the region, the probability of presence was below 0.25, while in a few localized areas, it approached 1.00. Conclusion Based on the results of the regression models, which showed significant effects of environmental variables such as elevation, slope, aspect, and precipitation on the distribution of T. kotschyanus in the study area, these models can serve as effective tools for identifying potential habitats and mapping the species’ geographic range. Considering the increased presence in the eastern region and a notable decline in the southwest, the findings of this study provide a scientific foundation for grazing management strategies and cultivation planning of T. kotschyanus tailored to the ecological capacity of different zones, contributing to the sustainable utilization and conservation of this valuable medicinal species. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Ecology, Habitat Modeling, Rangeland Management, Regression Models, Sustainable Ecosystems | ||
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