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ارزیابی اثر تغییرات اقلیمی بر پراکنش جغرافیایی پیازیزدی (Allium jesdianum Boiss. & Buhse) در ایران با استفاده از روش مدلسازی حداکثر آنتروپی | ||
| تحقیقات گیاهان دارویی و معطر ایران | ||
| مقاله 9، دوره 42، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 127، خرداد 1405، صفحه 131-149 اصل مقاله (1.96 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/ijmapr.2026.367913.3503 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| ناصر حسینی* 1؛ میثم مسعودی2؛ کبری قیاسوند3؛ فاطمه زینعلی4 | ||
| 1استادیار، گروه گیاهان دارویی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه اراک، اراک، ایران | ||
| 2دانشجوی دکتری، گروه علوم گیاهی، دانشکده زیستشناسی، دانشکدگان علوم، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران | ||
| 3فارغالتحصیل کاردانی، گروه گیاهان دارویی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه اراک، اراک، ایران | ||
| 4فارغالتحصیل کارشناسی، گروه گیاهان دارویی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه اراک، اراک، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| سابقه و هدف: تغییرات اقلیمی، تنوع زیستی و پراکنش گونههای گیاهی را به شدت تهدید میکند. پیاز یزدی (Allium jesdianum)، یکی از گونههای دارویی ارزشمند در رشتهکوههای زاگرس ایران است که جمعیت آن به دلیل تغییرات اقلیمی و برداشت بیرویه آسیب دیده است. این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی مهمترین عوامل محیطی مؤثر بر پراکنش این گونه و پیشبینی تأثیر سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم بر زیستگاههای آینده آن انجام شد. مواد و روشها: در این مطالعه از مدلسازی حداکثر آنتروپی (MaxEnt) برای پیشبینی توزیع جغرافیایی پیازیزدی استفاده شد. دادههای حضور گونه به همراه مجموعهای از متغیرهای زیستاقلیمی، خاکی و توپوگرافی استفاده شدند. تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر پراکنش گونه تحت دو سناریوی نیمهخوشبینانه (RCP 4.5) و بدبینانه (RCP 8.5) برای سالهای ۲۰۵۰ و ۲۰۷۰ ارزیابی گردید. یافتهها: نتایج نشان داد که براساس شاخص درصد مشارکت متغیرهای ارتفاع (55.4%)، بارندگی خشکترین ماه (15.6%) و چگالی خاک سطحی (13.1%) مهمترین عوامل تعیینکننده پراکنش گونه هستند. مدل با عملکرد عالی (0.9 = AUC) پیشبینی کرد که مساحت زیستگاههای مطلوب این گونه در سناریوهای آینده بین ۱۴ تا ۲۳ درصد کاهش خواهد یافت که بیشترین کاهش در سناریوی بدبینانه رخ میدهد. همچنین، پیشبینی میشود که زیستگاههای مناسب به سمت عرضهای جغرافیایی بالاتر (۳۳ تا ۳۸ درجه شمالی) جابجا شوند، در حالی که مطلوبیت در عرضهای پایینتر کاهش مییابد. نتیجهگیری: نتایج این مطالعه بر لزوم اتخاذ رویکردهای حفاظتی فوری برای پیازیزدی تأکید دارد. پیشنهاد میشود مناطق مناسب فعلی و آینده برای حفاظت درونرویشگاهی (In-situ) و کشت و بهرهبرداری پایدار از این گونه ارزشمند شناسایی و مدیریت شوند. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| ایران؛ پیاز یزدی؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ حفاظت؛ حداکثر آنتروپی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Projecting the future distribution of Allium jesdianum Boiss. and buhse under climate change scenarios in Iran using MaxEnt modeling | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Naser Hosseini1؛ Meysam Masoudi2؛ Kobra Ghiasvand3؛ Fatemeh Zeynali4 | ||
| 1Department of Medicinal Plants, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Arak University, Arak, Iran | ||
| 2Ph.D. student, Department of Plant Biology, School of Biology, College of Science, University of Tehran, Teheran, Iran | ||
| 3Department of Medicinal Plants, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Arak University, Arak, Iran | ||
| 4Department of Medicinal Plants, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Arak University, Arak, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Background and Objectives:Climate change poses a significant threat to biodiversity and the distribution of plant species. Allium jesdianum (Piaz-e-Yazdi), a valuable medicinal species in the Zagros Mountains of Iran, has populations damaged by climate change and over-harvesting. This study aimed to identify the most critical environmental factors affecting the distribution of this species and to predict the impact of climate change scenarios on its future habitats. Materials and Methods: This study employed Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling to predict the geographical distribution of A. jesdianum. We used species occurrence data along with a set of bioclimatic, soil, and topographic variables. We assessed the impact of climate change on the species' distribution under two scenarios, semi-optimistic (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5), for the years 2050 and 2070. Results: According to the percent contribution index, elevation (55.4%), precipitation of the driest month (15.6%), and topsoil bulk density (13.1%) were the most decisive factors in the species' distribution. The model demonstrated excellent performance (AUC = 0.9) and predicted that suitable habitats for this species will decrease by 14% to 23% under future scenarios, with the most severe decline occurring under the pessimistic scenario. Furthermore, suitable habitats are projected to shift toward higher latitudes (33° to 38° N), while suitability is expected to decrease at lower latitudes. Conclusion: These findings emphasize the need for immediate conservation strategies for A. jesdianum. We recommend identifying and managing current and future suitable areas for in situ conservation, as well as for the sustainable cultivation and utilization of this valuable species. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Allium jesdianum, climate change, conservation, Iran, MaxEnt | ||
| مراجع | ||
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