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تفکر سیستمی؛ پارادایم مفقوده در مدیریت آب ایران | ||
| تحقیقات مهندسی سازه های آبیاری و زهکشی | ||
| دوره 26، شماره 100، مهر 1404، صفحه 104-75 اصل مقاله (1.62 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله مروری | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/idser.2026.367811.1638 | ||
| نویسنده | ||
| نادر عباسی* | ||
| استاد، موسسه تحقیقات فنی و مهندسی کشاورزی، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، کرج، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| رشد پرشتاب و چندبعدی جهان معاصر در عرصه‌های فنی و اجتماعی موجب افزایش پیچیدگی در روابط و تعاملات انسان با یکدیگر و با طبیعت شده است. از این رو، مفاهیم توسعه که در گذشته عمدتا از دریچۀ مهندسی نگریسته می‌شد، در جهان امروز به دیدگاهی جامع شامل ابعاد فناوری، اقتصادی، اجتماعی، سیاسی، زیست‌محیطی و حاکمیتی و به شیوه‌ای عادلانه‌تر و با رویکرد پایداری اکوسیستم در حال تغییر است. در مسائلی مانند مدیریت منابع آب که هم با نیازها و نوع رفتار انسان ها و هم با نیازهای بومشناختی و ظرفیت طبیعت مرتبط است، این تغییر نگرش و رفتار جایگاه و اهمیت بیشتری دارد. تفکر سیستمی رویکردی است کل نگر که مسائل را در قالب یک سیستم و با توجه به تعامل و ارتباط بین اجزا، چند علیتی بودن وقایع، دوراندیشی، پویایی و پیامد محور بودن اقدامات بهصورت جامع و در نظر گرفتن جنبه های مختلف فنی، زیست محیطی، و اجتماعی بررسی می‌کند. در این نوشتار ضمن مرور پیچیدگی ها، به ویژه در حوزۀ مدیریت آب، برخی اصول و مبانی سیستم ها و تفکر سیستمی تشریح شده و ضرورت توسعۀ دیدگاه و تغییر نگرش به سمت سیستمی در حوزۀ مدیریت و مهندسی آب به میان آمده است. روش‌ها و ابزارهای مورد استفاده برای تحلیل سیستمی منابع آب معرفی و برخی تجربیات جهانی در خصوص استفاده از این رویکرد ارائه شده است. وضعیت منابع آب ایران با بهره‌گیری از مدل کوه یخی به‌عنوان یکی از ابزارهای سیستمی بررسی و تحلیل شده است. بر این اساس، مسائل آب ایران منطبق با لایه های مدل مفهومی کوه یخی در چهار سطح رخدادها، روندها، ساختارها و مدل‌های ذهنی تحلیل گردیده و مصادیقی متناسب با هر لایه معرفی شده است. در سطح رخدادها، پدیده‌هایی مانند کاهش شدید آب سدها و چاه ها، کاهش ذخایر آب آشامیدنی، خشک شدن برخی تالاب ها و رودخانه ها، فرونشست زمین، کاهش کیفیت منابع آب، کاهش تولید محصولات کشاورزی و افزایش تنش‌های امنیتی و اجتماعی مورد توجه قرار گرفته‌اند. در سطح روندها الگوهای تکرارشونده‌ای مانند روند نزولی سطح آب زیرزمینی، روند صعودی شوری آب و خاک، تغییر شاخص های اقلیمی مانند دما و میزان بارندگی، افزایش سطح کشت و مصارف آب، و رشد فعالیتهای عرضهمحور تحلیل شده‌اند. در سطح ساختارهای نهادی مواردی از قبیل تعدد دستگاههای متولی آب، ناکارآمدی نظام تخصیص آب، سیاست‌های یارانه‌ای و صادراتی، ضعف قوانین و مقررات و ناکارآمدی قوانین موجود و تمرکز بر راه‌حل‌های سازه‌ای معرفی شداند. در سطح مدل‌های ذهنی و باورها مواردی مانند نبود تفکر سیستمی، باور به بی‌پایانی منابع آب، تقدم منافع بخشی و منطقه ای، و تفکر تولید بیشتر و در هرجا بدون توجه به آمایش سرزمین و آب به عنوان عوامل و دلایل اصلی ناکارآمدی ساختاری و تسهیل روندها و بروز رویدادها شناسایی و معرفی شده‌اند. در ادامه راهکارهایی با ماهیت های مختلف و متناسب با مصادیق هر لایه به ترتیب اولویت از عمیقترین سطح مشتمل بر؛ اصلاح باورها و بازاندیشی مدل‌های ذهنی، اصلاح ساختارهای نهادی و حکمرانی، اقدامات تطبیقی و پیشگیرانه، و علاج بخشی و اصلاحی ارائه شده است. سرانجام اینکه تغییر نگرش از جزئی‌نگری و بخشی‌نگری به تفکر سیستمی به عنوان اصلی ترین راهکار، و اساس هرگونه اصلاح اثربخش و پایدار در سایر لایه ها پیشنهاد شده است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| حکمرانی آب؛ پویایی سیستم؛ مدیریت یکپارچه؛ وضعیت بحرانی آب | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Systems Thinking: The Missing Paradigm in Water Management in Iran | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Nader Abbasi | ||
| Professor, Agricultural Engineering Research Institute (AERI), Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Karaj, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Extended Abstract Introduction The accelerated and multidimensional growth of the contemporary world in both technical and social domains has significantly increased the complexity of human interactions—among individuals and with nature. Consequently, the concept of development, once primarily examined through an engineering lens, has evolved into a comprehensive paradigm encompassing technological, economic, social, political, environmental, and governance dimensions (Rosely and Voulvoulis, 2024). This paradigm emphasizes equity and sustainability, particularly the resilience of ecosystems. In domains such as water resource management, where human needs and behaviors intersect with ecological requirements and the carrying capacity of nature, this shift in perspective assumes heightened importance. Systems thinking offers a holistic framework that conceptualizes issues as interconnected systems. It accounts for the interactions among components, the multi-causality of events, foresight, dynamism, and the outcome-oriented nature of actions, while integrating technical, environmental, and social considerations. Although the importance of systems thinking in managing the complexities facing the world has now become apparent and has been more or less noticed in recent years, it is still in the educational and cultural stages, and its application to various issues has not been fully operationalized (Ross and Wade, 2024). Therefore, it seems that it is very necessary to explain the necessity and importance of this approach in solving today's complex problems, including water resources management, especially in Iran. This article attempts to briefly introduce the principles and foundations of the system and systems thinking, mention some global experiences, explain its role and position in the management and engineering of Iranian water resources, and present strategies and suggestions in this regard. Methodology This study begins by reviewing the complexities of contemporary phenomena, with particular emphasis on water management. It then outlines the principles and foundations of systems thinking, highlighting the necessity of adopting systems thinking approaches in water management and engineering. Subsequently, it introduces methods and tools for systemic analysis of water resources and presents selected global experiences in applying this approach. The analysis then turns to Iran’s water resources, employing the iceberg model as a systems tool. Within this framework, water-related challenges are examined across four conceptual layers: events, patterns, structures, and mental models, with illustrative examples provided at each level as follows (Senge, 1990; McLean et al., 2019; Kim, 1994). Events include phenomena such as the sharp decline in dam and well water levels, the reduction of potable water reserves, the drying of wetlands and rivers, the occurrence of land subsidence, the deterioration of water quality, the decline in agricultural production, and the intensification of social and security tensions. Patterns encompass recurring trends such as declining groundwater levels, rising salinity of water and soil, shifts in climatic indicators (temperature and precipitation), expansion of cultivated land and water consumption, and the growth of supply-driven activities. Structures refer to institutional and policy-related issues, including the multiplicity of water authorities, inefficiencies in allocation systems, subsidy and export policies, weaknesses in legislation, and the predominance of structural (engineering) solutions. Mental models capture underlying beliefs and assumptions, such as the absence of systemic thinking, the perception of water resources as inexhaustible, prioritization of sectoral and regional interests, and the pursuit of production irrespective of land-use planning and water availability. These factors are identified as root causes of structural inefficiency, reinforcing problematic trends and triggering adverse events. Results Studies on Iran’s water resources show that the country’s water crisis is no longer merely a scientific warning. Its symptoms—such as water scarcity, land subsidence, and the drying of dams, wells, wetlands, and rivers—are now visible to everyone. The situation has moved beyond abstract indicators and has become a serious issue with social, economic, and even security implications. The analysis conducted in this study using the Iceberg Model indicates that although natural and climatic factors contribute to the crisis, the core of the problem lies in water management practices, institutional structures, and development mindsets shaped over recent decades. Water management in Iran has largely focused on maximizing extraction, and the absence of a systems thinking in policymaking has led to the challenges we face today. Many current events stem from repetitive patterns and fragmented decision‑making in the past, whereas sustainable water management requires a comprehensive, forward‑looking approach that recognizes the interactions and mutual impacts among different components of the system. Furthermore, the paper proposes solutions tailored to each layer, prioritized from the deepest level upward: reforming beliefs and rethinking mental models, restructuring institutions and governance, and implementing adaptive, preventive, and remedial measures. Finally, the transition from traditional approaches to systems thinking is proposed as the fundamental step and the cornerstone of any effective and sustainable reform across all layers. Conclusion The analysis also shows that addressing Iran’s water crisis requires looking beyond surface‑level symptoms and focusing on the deeper structural and cognitive roots of the problem. This means that merely changing policies or launching new projects will not be sufficient. Instead, fundamental shifts in values, mindsets, and institutional structures are necessary. Without transformation at these deeper levels, resolving the water crisis will not be possible. Furthermore, considering the points discussed, it can be concluded that Iran’s water crisis is a multidimensional national challenge, and the most fundamental step is shifting from fragmented, sector‑based thinking to a holistic, systems‑thinking approach. Global experiences show that systems thinking in water resources management provides a comprehensive framework that, through integrated and basin‑level management, stakeholder and local community participation, the use of systemic analytical tools, and attention to social and ecological resilience, enables participatory decision‑making and sustainable policymaking. Given these experiences and the current conditions of water resources—especially in arid and semi‑arid regions—it is clear that transitioning from sectoral and infrastructure‑focused management to a system‑based approach is not merely an option but a vital necessity for ensuring the long‑term sustainability of water resources. • Events include phenomena such as the sharp decline in dam and well water levels, the reduction of potable water reserves, the drying of wetlands and rivers, the occurrence of land subsidence, the deterioration of water quality, the decline in agricultural production, and the intensification of social and security tensions. • Patterns encompass recurring trends such as declining groundwater levels, rising salinity of water and soil, shifts in climatic indicators (temperature and precipitation), expansion of cultivated land and water consumption, and the growth of supply-driven activities. • Structures refer to institutional and policy-related issues, including the multiplicity of water authorities, inefficiencies in allocation systems, subsidy and export policies, weaknesses in legislation, and the predominance of structural (engineering) solutions. • Mental models capture underlying beliefs and assumptions, such as the absence of systemic thinking, the perception of water resources as inexhaustible, prioritization of sectoral and regional interests, and the pursuit of production irrespective of land-use planning and water availability. These factors are identified as root causes of structural inefficiency, reinforcing problematic trends and triggering adverse events. Furthermore, the paper proposes solutions tailored to each layer, prioritized from the deepest level upward: reforming beliefs and rethinking mental models, restructuring institutions and governance, and implementing adaptive, preventive, and remedial measures. Finally, the transition from traditional approaches to systems thinking is proposed as the fundamental step and the cornerstone of any effective and sustainable reform across all layers. In summary, and considering the above, it can be said that Iran's water crisis is a multi-sectoral national challenge, and the most fundamental action is the decision to change the approach from a sectoral and detail-oriented approach to a holistic approach of systemic thinking. Global experiences have shown that systems thinking in water resources management is a comprehensive approach that, by emphasizing and relying on integrated and basin-wide management, stakeholder and local community participation, the use of systemic analytical tools, and attention to social and ecological resilience, enables participatory decision-making and sustainable policymaking. Thus, considering the existing experiences and the conditions governing the status of water resources and consumption, especially in arid and semi-arid regions of the world, it can be said that the transition from sectoral and structural management to a systemic approach is not a choice but a vital necessity for the sustainability of water resources. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Water governance, System dynamics, Integrated water management, Water crisis | ||
| مراجع | ||
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