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مروری بر دو دهه مخاطرات سیل و خشکسالی در استان کرمان | ||
| مهندسی و مدیریت آبخیز | ||
| مقاله 7، دوره 17، شماره 2، تیر 1404، صفحه 235-255 اصل مقاله (655.15 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/ijwmse.2024.366749.2077 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| الهه فرودی صفات1؛ سودابه گلستانی کرمانی2؛ مرضیه ثمره هاشمی2؛ محمد ذونعمت کرمانی* 3 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری سازه‌های آبی، بخش مهندسی آب، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران | ||
| 2استادیار، بخش مهندسی آب، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران | ||
| 3استاد، بخش مهندسی آب، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| چکیده مبسوط مقدمه امروزه اثرات ناشی از پدیده تغییر اقلیم در تمامی نقاط کره زمین به چشم می‌خورد که از مهم‌ترین آنها می‌توان به وقوع سیل و خشکسالی‌های مکرر اشاره کرد. این دو پدیده آثار زیان‌بار فراوانی ازجمله مسائل اقتصادی، اجتماعی و محیط زیستی به همراه دارند. علی‌رغم پدیده سیلاب که در لحظه و با شدت به وقوع می‌پیوندد، پدیده خشکسالی به مرور و تدریجی مناطق را تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد. پدیده‌های سیل و خشکسالی در مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک ازجمله استان کرمان آثار مخرب بسیاری را به وجود آورده‌اند. لذا، در این پژوهش در قالب یک مطالعه مروری به جمع‌آوری اطلاعات در خصوص سیل و خشکسالی‌های دو دهه اخیر در استان کرمان پرداخته شده است تا از نتایج آنها جهت گذر از این رخدادها بهره گرفته شود. مواد و روش‌ها در پژوهش مروری حاضر، به جمع‌آوری و مطالعه مقالات و گزارش‌های مرتبط با پدیده‌های سیل و خشکسالی در استان کرمان پرداخته شده است که در این خصوص از 49 مقاله فارسی کاربردی موجود (1402-1383 هجری خورشیدی) و نه مقاله انگلیسی (2023-2012 میلادی) بهره برده شد. در یک تقسیم‌بندی کلی، استان کرمان براساس میانگین طول و عرض جغرافیایی به چهار منطقه تقسیم شد که به‌ترتیب منطقه شمال غرب و جنوب شرق با اختصاص 35 درصد و 34 درصد از استنادات، بیشترین میزان مطالعات را به خود اختصاص دادند و 73 درصد از منابع این پژوهش مربوط به مطالعات خشکسالی در استان است، که نشان‌دهنده قدمت حضور این پدیده در سطح استان است. در این پژوهش، 27 درصد از مطالعات مورد بررسی از پرسشنامه استفاده نمودند و پرکاربردترین نرم‌افزارهای آماری و تحلیلی مورد استفاده به‌ترتیب نرم‌افزار آماری SPSS با سهم 26 درصد و نرم‌افزار مبتنی بر GIS با سهم 24 درصد بوده‌اند. نتایج و بحث پدیده‌های سیلاب و خشکسالی در استان کرمان در سال‌های اخیر نسبت به گذشته به لحاظ شدت و تعدد رو به فزونی هستند و نمی‌توان تأثیر آنها بر جامعه را انکار کرد. کاهش ریزش‌های جوی و شروع پدیده خشکسالی در استان کرمان از سال 1377 آغاز شده و همواره با یک روند نوسانی (خشکسالی متوسط تا شدید) در همه نقاط استان دیده می‌شود. به‌عنوان نمونه آمار ثبت شده در سد تنگوئیه سیرجان نشان می‌دهد که متوسط بارندگی این منطقه از 185 میلی‌متر در سال‌های 80-1365 به 158 میلی‌متر در بازه زمانی 95-1380 کاهش یافته است. همچنین، متوسط ورودی به حوضه بین سال‌های 80-1364 حدود 63 میلیون مترمکعب در سال بوده است که در بازه زمانی 95-1380 با کاهش 86 درصد به هشت میلیون مترمکعب رسیده است که ناشی از بروز خشکسالی و همچنین، عدم بهره‌برداری اصولی از سازه‌های بالادست سد است. همچنین، آمار ثبت شده از سد جیرفت نیز نشان می‌دهد که متوسط بارندگی در این منطقه بین سال‌های 80-1370، 194 میلی‌متر بوده و از سال 1380 تا 1395 با کاهش 23 درصد به 150 میلی‌متر رسیده است. متوسط میزان جریان ورودی به حوضه نیز بین سال‌های 80-1370، حدود 680 میلیون مترمکعب در سال بوده است که طی سال‌های 95-1380 با کاهشی معادل 80 درصد به 130 میلیون مترمکعب رسیده است. در خصوص سیلاب‌های رخ داده شده نیز بر اساس آمار ثبت شده در ایستگاه‌های هیدرومتری استان کرمان تعداد 2294 روز سیلابی طی سال‌های آبی 98-1381 ثبت شده که میانگین بیشترین حجم دبی اندازه‌گیری شده مربوط به سیلاب روز 1395/11/30 به مقدار 833.33 مترمکعب در روز و دبی اوج 1202 مترمکعب در ساعت در ایستگاه یالخری رودخانه نساء بم است. با توجه به روند افزایشی وقوع پدیده‌های مذکور در سطح استان، در این پژوهش، با مرور مطالعات انجام شده، به بررسی عوامل مؤثر در وقوع، پیامدها و آسیب‌های ناشی از آنها و راهکارهای مدیریتی جهت کاهش مخاطرات سیل و خشکسالی پرداخته شد. نتیجه‌گیری جمع‌بندی نتایج به‌دست آمده نشان می‌دهد، بیشترین تهدید استان کرمان در خصوص پدیده خشکسالی است که تمام استان از آثار آن رنج می‌برد. طبق نتایج حاصل، شیب خط روند شاخص خشکسالی بارش-تبخیرتعرق استاندارد شده طی دوره آماری 75-1369 برابر 0.046+ بوده که حاکی از کاهش خشکسالی در استان و در دوره‌های آماری 89-1376 و 1390-97 به‌ترتیب برابر با 0.031- و 0.01- بوده که بیانگر افزایش شدت خشکسالی در سال‌های اخیر است. همچنین، وقوع پدیده سیلاب نیز رو به فزونی است و این پدیده بیشترین خسارات را در کمربند شمال غرب–جنوب شرق استان و در مناطق مرتفع به جا گذاشته است. این دو پدیده آثار بسیار مخربی در زمینه‌های مختلف از خود برجای می‌گذارند که بیشترین آسیب‌ها بر مسائل اجتماعی است و پس از آن، مسائل اقتصادی و زیست محیطی ظاهر می‌شوند. همچنین، باید خاطر نشان کرد که سیلاب و خشکسالی دو پدیده جدا از هم نیستند و باید با یکدیگر مورد بررسی و ارزیابی قرار گیرند تا بتوان مناسب‌ترین راهکارها را برای گذر از آنها ارائه داد. لذا، با توجه به نتایج تأمل برانگیز حاصل از این پژوهش، ارائه یک برنامه‌ریزی دقیق با چشم‌انداز بلندمدت در زمینه مدیریت منابع آب و توجه به تغییر و تحولات بنیادی در قوانین مربوط به آب ضروری است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| آب زیرزمینی؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ تنش آبی؛ مهندسی منابع آب؛ هیدرولوژی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| A review of two decades of flood and drought hazards in Kerman Province | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Elaheh Foroudi Sefat1؛ Soudabeh Golestani Kermani2؛ Marzieh Samare Hashemi2؛ Mohammad Zounemat-Kermani3 | ||
| 1Phd Student of Hydraulic Structures, Department of Water Engineering, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran | ||
| 2Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran | ||
| 3Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Extended abstract Introduction Nowadays, the effects of climate change are visible across the globe, with frequent flooding and droughts being among the most significant. These two phenomena have many harmful effects, including economic, social, and environmental issues. Despite the flood phenomenon that occurs instantly and intensely, the drought phenomenon gradually affects the regions. Flood and drought phenomena in arid and semi-arid regions, including Kerman Province, have caused many destructive damage. Therefore, this study collects information on floods and droughts over the past two decades in Kerman Province to utilize the results for managing these events. Materials and methods In the present review research, articles and reports related to flood and drought phenomena in Kerman Province (located in Iran) have been collected and studied, and in this regard, 49 practical articles in Persian (2004‒2024) and nine articles in English (2012‒2023) were analyzed. In a general classification, Kerman Province was divided into four regions based on the average latitude and longitude; respectively, the northwest and southeast regions accounted for 35% and 34% of citations and accounted for the largest amount of studies, and 73% of the sources of this research are related to studies of drought in the province, which shows the age of this phenomenon. In this study, 27% of the studies used questionnaires, and the most widely used statistical and analytical software used were SPSS statistical software with a share of 26% and GIS-based software with a share of 24%, respectively. Results and discussion Flood and drought phenomena in Kerman Province have been increasing in intensity and frequency in recent years compared to the past, and their impact on society cannot be denied. The reduction of atmospheric precipitation and the onset of drought phenomena in Kerman province began in 1998 and is always seen with a fluctuating trend (moderate to severe drought) in all parts of the province. For example, statistics recorded in the Tanguieh Dam in Sirjan show that the average rainfall in this region has decreased from 185 mm in 1986-1997 to 158 mm in the period 2001-2002. Also, the average inflow to the basin between 2005-2001 was about 63 million cubic meters per year, which decreased by 86% to 8 million cubic meters in the period 2001-2002, which is due to the occurrence of drought and the lack of proper exploitation of the dam's upstream structures. Also, statistics recorded from the Jiroft Dam show that the average rainfall in this region between 1991-2001 was 194 mm, and since 2001-2002 it has decreased by 23% to 150 mm. The average inflow into the basin between 1991-2002 was about 680 million cubic meters per year, which decreased by 80% to 130 million cubic meters during 2001-2002. Regarding the floods that occurred, based on the statistics recorded at the hydrometric stations of Kerman province, 2294 flood days were recorded during the water years 2002-2019, with the average of the highest measured discharge volume related to the flood on 11/30/2016 being 33.833 (m3/day) and the peak discharge (m3/h) being 1202 at the Yalakhari station of the Nisa River in Bam. Considering the increasing trend of the occurrence of the aforementioned phenomena in the province, this research reviewed the studies conducted to examine the factors affecting the occurrence, consequences and damages caused by them, and management strategies to reduce flood and drought risks. Conclusions The summary of the results shows that the greatest threat to Kerman Province is the phenomenon of drought, from which the entire province suffers. According to the results, the slope of the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), during the statistical period 1980-1995 was +0.046, indicating a decrease in drought in the province, and in the statistical periods 1997-2000 and 2001-2011, it was -0.031 and -0.01, respectively, indicating an increase in the severity of drought in recent years. The occurrence of floods is also increasing, and this phenomenon has caused the most damage in the northwest-southeast belt of the province and in the highlands. These two phenomena leave very destructive effects in various fields, with the greatest damage being on social issues, followed by economic and environmental issues. It should also be noted that floods and droughts are not two separate phenomena and must be examined and evaluated together in order to provide the most appropriate solutions to overcome them. Therefore, given the thought-provoking results of this research, it is necessary to provide detailed planning with a long-term perspective in the field of water resources management and to pay attention to fundamental changes and developments in water-related laws. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Climate change, Groundwater, Hydrology, Water resources engineering, Water stress | ||
| مراجع | ||
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