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تهیه نقشه حساسیت به آتشسوزی در شهرستان آستارا با بهرهگیری از روش تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP) و مدل فراوانی نسبی (FR) | ||
| تحقیقات حمایت و حفاظت جنگلها و مراتع ایران | ||
| مقاله 2، دوره 22، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 44، اسفند 1403، صفحه 167-183 اصل مقاله (749.44 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/ijfrpr.2024.364802.1613 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| اباذر اسمعلی عوری* 1؛ محمد گلشن2؛ رقیه جهدی3 | ||
| 1استاد، گروه آبخیزداری، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، esmaliouri@uma.ac.ir | ||
| 2دانشآموخته دکتری آبخیزداری، گروه آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ایران. | ||
| 3دانشیار، گروه جنگل، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| سابقه و هدف: یکی از خطراتی که در دهههای اخیر منابع طبیعی را بهطور جدی تهدید میکند، وقوع آتشسوزیهای عمدی و غیرعمدی در مناطق جنگلی است. این آتشسوزیها علاوهبر خسارتهای مستقیم جانی و مالی، با کاهش تراکم پوشش گیاهی بهصورت غیرمستقیم منجر به تخریب منابع طبیعی و پیامدهای منفی در سطح حوزههای آبخیز میشود. مواد و روشها: تهیه نقشه حساسیت به آتشسوزی میتواند در تعیین نقاط بحرانی و مقابله با این خطر طبیعی بسیار کارآمد باشد، برای این منظور در این پژوهش از کارایی سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی (GIS) و روشهای تحلیل سلسلهمراتبی (AHP) و فراوانی نسبی (FR) در جنگلهای هیرکانی شهرستان آستارا با مساحت 42 هزار هکتار در غرب استان گیلان استفاده شد. این شهرستان با میانگین بلندمدت 650 میلیمتر بارندگی و 1/13 درجه سانتیگراد حرارت، اقلیمی مرطوب دارد. در روش AHP و FR با اعمال وزنهای بهدستآمده بهترتیب با استفاده از پرسشنامه و 70 درصد نقاط آتشسوزی مشاهداتی روی معیارهای مطالعاتی، نقشه وزنی محاسبه شد. با ترکیب این نقشهها با یکدیگر، نقشه حساسیت به آتشسوزی در هر دو روش تهیه و در پنج کلاس با حساسیت بسیار کم تا بسیار بالا طبقهبندی گردید. بهمنظور تعیین صحت نتایج از نقشه 30 درصد نقاط آتشسوزی و منحنی ROC استفاده شد. نتایج و یافتهها: در روش AHP ارزش ضریب ناسازگاری (CI) کمتر از 1/0 بهدست آمد که نشاندهنده متناسب بودن پارامترهای انتخابی است. نتایج اعتبارسنجی مدلها نشان داد، روش AHP دارای سطح زیر منحنی برابر با 826/0 و روش FR دارای سطح زیر منحنی برابر با 894/0 است. براساس مقادیر AUC، مدل FR نسبت به مدل AHP در تهیه نقشه مناطق مستعد آتشسوزی دقت بیشتری دارد، بنابراین، استفاده از مدل FR برای این شهرستان توصیه میشود. با توجه به نتایج، از میان معیارهای مطالعاتی، معیار فاصله از روستا و جاده ارتباطی بهترتیب با امتیاز 436/0 و 314/0 مهمترین معیارهای مؤثر در وقوع آتشسوزی منطقه هستند. معیار جمعیت با امتیاز 062/0 کمترین تأثیر را بر وقوع آتشسوزی در منطقه مطالعاتی دارد. نتیجهگیری: در این شهرستان تمرکز آتشسوزیها بیشتر در نواحی شمالی و جنوبشرقی شامل حوزههای آبخیز شماره 1، 4 و 7 است، نقشه پهنهبندی خطر آتشسوزی تهیهشده نشان میدهد، 82/1 درصد از مساحت منطقه موردمطالعه دارای حساسیت بسیار بالا و 9/22 درصد دارای حساسیت بالا به آتشسوزی است که با مدیریت صحیح میتوان بهسرعت این آتشسوزیها را خاموش کرد؛ در حوزههای حساس به آتشسوزی، تمرکز روستاها بالا و فاصله بین روستاها از جادههای ارتباطاتی کمتر است، بنابراین، در مناطق بحرانی راهکارهای جلب مشارکت مردمی، همیاران طبیعت و تجهیز و آموزش روستاییان برای اطفای حریق میتواند در کاهش وقوع حریق در شهرستان آستارا مؤثر باشد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| تخریب؛ حریق؛ جنگل هیرکانی؛ استان گیلان | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Determining the forest fire susceptibility map in the Astara city using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Frequency Ratio Model (FR) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Abazar Esmali Ouri1؛ Mohammad Golshan2؛ Roghayeh Jahdi3 | ||
| 1Professor, Department of watershed management, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resource, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Iran. esmaliouri@uma.ac.ir | ||
| 2PhD. Graduated, Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural sciences and Natural Resources University, Iran. | ||
| 3Associate Professor, Faculty of Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resource, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Abstract Background and objectives: In recent decades, intentional and unintentional forest fires have posed a serious threat to natural resources. These fires not only lead to direct human and financial losses but also contribute to the destruction of ecosystems, soil degradation, and loss of biodiversity. Additionally, they disrupt the balance of watersheds by reducing vegetation cover, increasing the risk of soil erosion, altering hydrological cycles, and ultimately affecting water quality and availability. Understanding fire-prone areas and their contributing factors is essential for effective fire management, risk reduction, and the development of preventive strategies. Fire risk mapping serves as a valuable tool for identifying critical areas and implementing targeted mitigation measures. Methodology: Fire risk mapping is an effective tool for identifying critical areas and mitigating fire hazards. This study evaluates the efficiency of the Geographic Information System (GIS), Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), and Frequency Ratio (FR) methods in mapping fire-prone areas in Astara, a city in western Gilan province covering 42,000 hectares. Astara is part of the Hyrcanian forests and has a humid climate with an average annual rainfall of 650 mm and a mean temperature of 13.1°C. In this study, the AHP method assigned weights to fire risk criteria based on expert surveys, while the FR method used the distribution of 70% of observed fire incidents. The obtained weights were applied to the study criteria to generate weighted maps. These maps were then integrated to produce a fire susceptibility map, categorizing fire risk into five classes, from very low to very high. To validate the results, 30% of recorded fire incidents and the ROC curve were used. The validation data were not included in the modeling phase. Results: In the AHP method, the consistency index (CI) was below 0.1, indicating reliable parameter selection. Model validation showed that the AHP method had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.826, while the FR method achieved an AUC of 0.894. These results suggest that the FR model is more accurate for mapping fire-prone areas in Astara. The lower accuracy of the AHP model is likely due to potential errors in the pairwise comparison of criteria. Among the evaluated factors, proximity to villages (weight: 0.436) and roads (weight: 0.314) were the most influential in fire occurrence. In contrast, population density had the least impact (weight: 0.062). Conclusion: In Astara, fires are concentrated in the northern and southeastern regions, particularly in watersheds No. 1, 4, and 7. The fire susceptibility map indicates that 1.82% of the study area is highly fire-prone, while 22.9% has moderate sensitivity. With proper management, fires in these areas can be controlled effectively. High-risk basins have a dense village distribution with short distances to roads, making them more susceptible to fires. Therefore, promoting public participation and equipping villagers with fire extinguishers can help prevent rapid fire spread. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Destruction, Fire, Hyrcanian forest, Gilan Province | ||
| مراجع | ||
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