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اثر تغییر اقلیم بر پراکنش رویشگاه گونه Platychaete aucheri. Boiss در استان سیستان و بلوچستان بر پایه مدل پیشبینی اقلیم | ||
| تحقیقات مرتع و بیابان ایران | ||
| مقاله 6، دوره 31، شماره 3، مهر 1403، صفحه 284-300 اصل مقاله (1.05 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/ijrdr.2024.132036 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| معصومه ناروئی* 1؛ مرتضی خداقلی2؛ راضیه صبوحی3 | ||
| 1محقق، بخش تحقیقات جنگل و مرتع، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی بلوچستان، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، ایرانشهر، ایران | ||
| 2استاد پژوهش، بخش تحقیقات مرتع، موسسه تحقیقات جنگل ها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات ، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 3دکترای علوم مرتع، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان اصفهان، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، اصفهان، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| سابقه و هدف: شناخت عوامل محیطی مؤثر در استقرار پوشش گیاهی، میتواند به مدیریت صحیح اکوسیستمهای مرتعی کمک کند. رویشگاه مطلوب، تأثیر به سزایی بر بقا و تولیدمثل گونه ها دارد. آشکارسازی تغییرات پارامترهای اقلیمی، بیانگر آن است که تغییرات اقلیمی در ایران شروع شده و ضرورت دارد که رویشگاه بالقوه گونههای شاخص، در حال حاضر و سالهای آینده، تحت مدلهای هشدار اقلیمی، مشخص گردد. با پیشرفت علم آمار و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، پیشبینی رویشگاه گونههای گیاهی با استفاده از روش های مدلسازی ، میسر شده است. ازاینرو، این پژوهش با هدف تهیه نقشه پیشبینی رویشگاههای گونه Platychaete aucheri بر پایه مدل پیشبینی اقلیمی، در استان سیستان و بلوچستان انجام شد. مواد و روشها: ابتدا با استفاده از 8 ایستگاه سینوپتیک داخل و مناطق مجاور، پایگاه دادهها شامل متغیرهای بارش، دمای شبانه، دمای روزانه و متوسط دما، از سال تاسیس هر ایستگاه تا سال 2019 تشکیل و 19سنجه اقلیمی محاسبه شد. همچنین با استفاده از مدل رقومی ارتفاع با دقت 30 متر، سه متغیر فیزیوگرافی شامل شیب، جهت و ارتفاع تهیه گردید. سپس با استفاده از نقشههای بهنگام شده طرح شناخت مناطق اکولوژیک و بازدیدهای میدانی، نقاط حضور و غیاب گونه P.aucheri مشخص شد. اساس تجزیه و تحلیل به کار برده شده در این تحقیق را رگرسیون لجستیک تشکیل میدهد که بر اساس مقادیر محیط زیستی مربوط به نقاط حضور و غیاب گونه میباشد. با استفاده از رگرسیون لجستیک، رفتار رویش این گونه در منطقه سیستان و بلوچستان مشخص و نقشه مدلسازی شده و معادلات مربوطه در شرایط کنونی محاسبه شد. پس از اطمینان از کارآمد بودن مدل، از دادههای اقلیمی پیشبینی شده توسط مدل گردش عمومی MRI-ESM2-0تحت سناریو 5/4 و 5/8 استفاده گردید و با استفاده از معادلات فعلی و قرار دادن دادههای استخراج شده ازپایگاه، Worldclimeنقشه پراکنش آینده گونه P.aucheriبرای سال 2050 تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی RCP4.5وRCP8.5تولیدگردید. بدین صورت که در مرحله تعریف مدل رگرسیون لجستیک در ArcGIS، به جای نقشه متغیرهای اقلیمی که در مدل وجود دارند نقشههای همان متغیرها که برای سال 2050 پیشبینی شدهاند، جایگذاری گردیدند. نتایج: نتایج حاصل از نقشههای بالقوه نشان داد که پراکنش فعلی گونه، P.aucheriدر بخشهای مرکزی و جنوبی حضور پر رنگتری داشته و با حرکت به سمت مناطق شمالی از درصد حضور گونه کاسته شده است. سطح رویشگاه مناسب (احتمال وقوع بیشتر از 75 درصد) گونه P.aucheri در استان معادل 12873269 هکتار ، تقریبا 71 درصد میباشد. ارزشیابی مدل با استفاده از دادههای حضور و عدم حضور گونه و با استفاده از ضریب آماری کاپا انجام شد در این ارتباط مقدار ضریب آماری کاپا 85/0به دست آمد که با توجه به طبقه بندی ارائه شده از ضرایب کاپا، مدل از دقت خوب و قابل قبولی برخوردار است. نقشههای حاصل از پیشبینی مدل رگرسیون لجستیک نشان میدهد که سطح رویشگاه گونه P.aucheri در سال 2050 تحت هر دو سناریو RCP4.5 و RCP8.5افزایش چشمگیری خواهد یافت و در احتمال وقوع بیشتر از 75 درصد مشاهده میشود که مساحت رویشگاه گونه P.aucheri در استان به ترتیب برابر 15506391 و 17788376 هکتار خواهد شد که به ترتیب سطحی معادل3/85 و 85/97 درصد را به خود اختصاص خواهد داد. تحت سناریوRCP8.5 احتمال وقوع حضور گونه به شدت افزایش خواهد یافت و مشاهده میشود که احتمال حضور این گونه در طبقات پایین 50 درصد به صفر میرسد. نتیجه گیری: در مجموع، تغییر اقلیم و به تبع آن افزایش شاخصههای دمایی، باعث حفظ رویشگاه فعلی، افزایش احتمال حضور گونه در سطح کل استان و گسترش عمودی گونه P.aucheri و حرکت آن به سمت عرضهای جغرافیایی بالاتر در امتداد گرادیان ارتفاعی منطقه، خواهد شد. از این رو، حد بالای مورد انتظار گستره رویشی گونه P.aucheri، طی سه دهه آینده، دستخوش تغییر قرار خواهد گرفت. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| گردش عمومی جو؛ رگرسیون لجستیک؛ سناریوی اقلیمی؛ اکوسیستمهای مرتعی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The effect of climate change on the habitat distribution of Platychaete aucheri. Boiss species in Sistan and Baluchestan province based on climate prediction model | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Masome Narouei1؛ Morteza Khodagholi2؛ Razieh Saboohi3 | ||
| 1Researcher, Forest and Rangeland Research Division, Baluchestan Agriculture and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Iranshahr, Iran | ||
| 2Research Professor, Rangeland Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran | ||
| 3Ph.D. of Range Management, Isfahan Agriculture and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Isfahan, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Abstract Background and objectives: Knowing the effective environmental factors in the establishment of vegetation can help the proper management of pasture ecosystems. A suitable habitat has a significant effect on the survival and reproduction of species. Revealing changes in climate parameters indicates that climate changes have started in Iran and it is necessary to determine the potential habitats of indicator species, now and in the coming years, under climate warning models. With the advancement of statistics and geographic information system, it has become possible to predict the habitat of plant species using modeling methods. Therefore, this research was conducted with the aim of preparing a forecast map of Platychaete aucheri habitats based on the climate forecast model in Sistan and Baluchestan province. Methodology: First, using 8 synoptic stations inside and nearby areas, the database including precipitation variables, night temperature, daily temperature and average temperature, from the year of establishment of each station until 2019, and 19 climate parameters were calculated. Also, three physiographic variables, including slope, direction and height, were prepared using a digital height model with an accuracy of 30 meters. Then, by using the updated maps of the ecological zones recognition plan and field visits, the presence and absence points of P.aucheri species were determined. The basis of the analysis used in this research is logistic regression, which is based on environmental values related to the presence and absence of species. Using logistic regression, the growth behavior of this species in Sistan and Baluchestan region was determined and the map was modeled and the relevant equations were calculated in the current conditions. After ensuring the efficiency of the model, the climate data predicted by the general circulation model MRI-ESM2-0 were used under the scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, and by using the current equations and placing the data extracted from the database, Worldclime, the future distribution map of the species P.aucheri was produced for 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. In this way, at the stage of defining the logistic regression model in ArcGIS, instead of the map of the climate variables that exist in the model, the maps of the same variables predicted for the year 2050 were placed. Results: The results of the potential maps showed that the current distribution of the species, P.aucheri, had a more colorful presence in the central and southern parts, and the percentage of the presence of the species decreased by moving towards the northern regions. The area of suitable habitat (probability of occurrence greater than 75%) of P.aucheri species in the province is equal to 12873269 hectares, approximately 71%. The evaluation of the model was done using the data of the presence and absence of the species and using the Kappa statistical coefficient. In this connection, the value of the Kappa statistical coefficient was obtained as 0.85, which according to the presented classification of the Kappa coefficients, the model has good and acceptable accuracy. It is acceptable. The maps resulting from the prediction of the logistic regression model show that the habitat area of P.aucheri species will increase significantly in 2050 under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and it is observed that the habitat area of P.aucheri species is more than 75% more likely to occur. In the province, it will be equal to 15506391 and 17788376 hectares, respectively, which will occupy a surface equivalent to 85.3 and 97.85%, respectively. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the probability of the presence of the species will increase greatly, and it can be seen that the probability of the presence of this species in the lower floors reaches 50% to zero. Conclusion: In general, climate change and the consequent increase in temperature indicators will preserve the current habitat, increase the probability of the presence of the species in the entire province, and the vertical expansion of the P.aucheri species and its movement to higher latitudes along the altitude gradient of the region. Therefore, the expected upper limit of the vegetative range of P. aucheri species will undergo changes during the next three decades. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Atmospheric general circulation, Logistic regression, Climate scenario, Grassland ecosystems | ||
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