اخبار و اعلانات

 آمار

تعداد نشریات284
تعداد نشریات سازمان82
تعداد شماره‌ها3,037
تعداد مقالات33,984
تعداد مشاهده مقاله45,765,840
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله77,188,925
Rostampor, Fatemeh, Mousavi, Seyed Ali, Heidari, Mohammad, Faramarzi, Ahmad, Rashidi, Hadi, Shojaei, Saeideh, Barati, Barat. (1403). Modeling the time series of Scorpion sting in Southwestern Iran. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 79(3), 651-658. doi: 10.32592/ARI.2024.79.3.651
Fatemeh Rostampor; Seyed Ali Mousavi; Mohammad Heidari; Ahmad Faramarzi; Hadi Rashidi; Saeideh Shojaei; Barat Barati. "Modeling the time series of Scorpion sting in Southwestern Iran". سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 79, 3, 1403, 651-658. doi: 10.32592/ARI.2024.79.3.651
Rostampor, Fatemeh, Mousavi, Seyed Ali, Heidari, Mohammad, Faramarzi, Ahmad, Rashidi, Hadi, Shojaei, Saeideh, Barati, Barat. (1403). 'Modeling the time series of Scorpion sting in Southwestern Iran', سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 79(3), pp. 651-658. doi: 10.32592/ARI.2024.79.3.651
Rostampor, Fatemeh, Mousavi, Seyed Ali, Heidari, Mohammad, Faramarzi, Ahmad, Rashidi, Hadi, Shojaei, Saeideh, Barati, Barat. Modeling the time series of Scorpion sting in Southwestern Iran. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 1403; 79(3): 651-658. doi: 10.32592/ARI.2024.79.3.651

Modeling the time series of Scorpion sting in Southwestern Iran

Archives of Razi Institute
مقاله 27، دوره 79، شماره 3، مرداد و شهریور 2024، صفحه 651-658    اصل مقاله (532.53 K)
نوع مقاله: Original Articles
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.32592/ARI.2024.79.3.651
نویسندگان
Fatemeh Rostampor1؛ Seyed Ali Mousavi* 2؛ Mohammad Heidari3؛ Ahmad Faramarzi4؛ Hadi Rashidi5؛ Saeideh Shojaei6؛ Barat Barati7
1Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Urmia University of Medical Sciences, Urmia, Iran
2Department of public Health, Shoushtar Faculty of Medical Sciences, Shoushtar, Iran
3Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Clinical Research Institute, Urmia University of Medical Science, Urmia, Iran
4Department of Health Management and Economics, School of Public Health, Urmia, university of medical sciences, Urmia, Iran.
5Department of Epidemiology & Biostatics, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Colombia.
6Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
7Department of Public Health, Shoushtar Faculty of Medical Sciences, Shoushtar, Iran
چکیده
Abstract
Scorpion stings pose a significant public health concern in Iran, resulting in approximately 45,000-50,000 cases and 19 deaths annually. Scorpions, belonging to the Arachnida class, are venomous arthropods found in all continents except Antarctica. They are of particular concern in tropical and subtropical regions. The Khuzestan and Hormozgan provinces have the highest reported incidence, with an estimated 36,000 cases each year. This study focused on modeling the time series data of scorpion stings specifically in Shoushtar city from 2017 to 2022. Our objective was to investigate the presence of seasonality and long-term trends in the incidence of scorpion stings by utilizing advanced analytical techniques such as the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. We applied the Seasonal ARIMA model to fit a univariate time series of scorpion sting incidence. This study revealed a significant seasonal trend and an overall increase and decrease in scorpion sting cases during the study period. The best-fitting model for the available data was a seasonal ARIMA model in the form of ARIMA (0,0,1) (1,1,1)12. This model can forecast the frequency of scorpion sting cases in Southwestern Iran over the next two years. As a result, Time series analysis can provide valuable insights into the patterns and trends of Scorpion sting incidents, allowing for better planning and allocation of healthcare resources. By understanding the seasonal variations, proactive measures can be implemented to address the growing issue of Scorpion stings in Iran effectively.
Keywords: Scorpion stings; Time series analysis; ARIMA modeling; Box Jenkins model; Southwestern Iran
کلیدواژه‌ها
Scorpion stings؛ Time series analysis؛ ARIMA modeling؛ Box Jenkins model؛ Southwestern Iran
عنوان مقاله [English]
مدل سازی سری های زمانی عقرب گزیدگی در جنوب غرب ایران
سایر فایل های مرتبط با مقاله
مراجع
  1. Ghorbani A, Mansouri B, Baradaran M. Effects of climate variables on the incidence of scorpion stings in Iran for five years. J Venom Anim Toxins Incl Trop Dis. 2021;27:e20200110.
  2. World Health Organization. Rabies. 2021.
  3. Sagheb MM, Sharifian M, Moini M, Sharifian AH. Scorpion bite prevalence and complications: report from a referral center in southern Iran. Trop Doct. 2012;42(2):90–1.
  4. LoVecchio F, Traub SJ, Burns MM. Scorpion Envenomation Causing Neuromuscular Toxicity (United States, Mexico, Central America, and Southern Africa). 2020.
  5. Hui Wen F, Monteiro WM, Moura da Silva AM, Tambourgi DV, Mendonça da Silva I, Sampaio VS, dos Santos MC, Sachett J, Ferreira LC, Kalil J, Lacerda M. Snakebites and scorpion stings in the Brazilian Amazon: identifying research priorities for a largely neglected problem. PLoS neglected tropical diseases. 2015;9(5).
  6. Chippaux J-P, Goyffon M. Epidemiology of scorpionism: a global appraisal. Acta Tropica. 2008;107(2):71-9.
  7. Jalali A, Rahim F. Epidemiological Review of Scorpion Envenomation in Iran. Iran J Pharm Res. 13(3):743-56.
  8. Baseer, K.A.; Naser, M.A.A. Predictors for Mortality in Children with Scorpion Envenomation Admitted to Pediatric Intensive Care Unit, Qena Governorate, Egypt. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 2019, 101, 941–945.
  9. Dehghani R, Ghannaee Arani M. (). Scorpion sting prevention and treatment in ancient Iran. J Tradit Complement Med. 2015;5(2):75–80.
  10. Dehghani R, Fathi B. Scorpion sting in Iran: a review. Toxicon. 2012;60(5):919-33.
  11. Amr ZS, Baker MAA, Al-Saraireh M, Warrell DA. Scorpions and scorpion sting envenoming (scorpionism) in the Arab Countries of the Middle East. Toxicon. 2021; 191:83-103.
  12. Abd El FE, El Shehaby DM, Elghazally SA, Hetta HF. Toxicological and epidemiological studies of scorpion sting cases and morphological characterization of scorpions (Leiurusquin questriatus and Androctonus crassicauda) in Luxor, Egypt. Toxicology reports. 2019;6:329-35.
  13. Bavani MM, Rafinejad J, Hanafi-Bojd AA, Oshaghi MA, Navidpour S, Dabiri F, Badakhshan M, Ghorbani E, Bagheri M. Spatial distribution of medically important scorpions in north west of Iran. Journal of Arthropod-Borne Diseases. 2017;11(3):371.
  14. Abroug F, Ouanes-Besbes L, Tilouche N, Elatrous S. Scorpion envenomation: state of the art. Intensive care medicine. 2020;46(3):401-10.
  15. Sanaei-Zadeh H. Painless stings of yellow Iranian scorpions. Iran Red Crescent Med J. 2017;19(4):e42645.
  16. Shahi M, Habibi-Masour R, Salehi M, Ghasemi-Nang M, Rafizad E, Abbasi M, Hanafi-Bojd AA. Scorpions and scorpionism in Roudan County, southern Iran. J Arthropod Borne Dis. 2019;13(4): 353–361.
  17. Nejati J, Mozafari E, Saghafipour A, Kiyani M. Scorpion fauna and epidemiological aspects of scorpionism in southeastern Iran. Asian Pac J Trop Biomed. 2014;4(Suppl 1): S217–21.
  18. Mohammadi Bavani M, Rafinejad J, Hanafi-Bojd AA, Oshaghi MA, Navidpour SH, Dabiri F, Badakhshan M, Ghorbani E, Bagheri M. Spatial distribution of medically important scorpions in the northwest of Iran. J Arthropod Borne Dis. 2017;11: 371–382.
  19. Linden A, Adams JL, Roberts N. Evaluating disease management program effectiveness: an introduction to time series analysis. Dis Manag. 2003;6(4): 243-55.
  20. Dehghani R, Fathi B. Scorpion sting in Iran: a review. Toxicon. 2012;60(5):919–33.
  21. Jalali A, Rahim F. Epidemiological Review of Scorpion Envenomation in Iran. Iran J Pharm Res. 2014;13(3):743-56.
  22. Dehghani R, Charkhloo E, Seyyedi-Bidgoli N, Chimehi E, Ghavami-Ghameshlo M. A review on scorpionism in Iran. J of arthropod-borne diseases. 2018;12(4):325.
  23. Liu Q, Liu X, Jiang B, Yang W. Forecasting incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China using ARIMA model. BMC Infect Dis. 2011; 11(1):218.
  24. Selmane S, L’hadj M. Forecasting and prediction of scorpion sting cases in Biskra province, Algeria, using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model. Epidemiology and health. 2016;38: e2016044.
  25. Haines L, Munoz W, Van Gelderen C. ARIMA modeling of birth data. J Appl Statistics. 1989;16(1):55-67.
  26. Zhang X, Zhang T, Young AA, Li X. Applications and comparisons of four time series models in epidemiological surveillance data. PLoS ONE. 2014; 9(2).
  27. Wang L, Liang C, Wu W, Wu S, Yang J, Lu X, Cai Y, Jin C. Epidemic situation of brucellosis in Jinzhou city of China and prediction using the ARIMA model. Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases and Medical Microbiology. 2019;2019.
  28. Khatony A, Abdi A, Fatahpour T, Towhidi F. The epidemiology of scorpion stings in tropical areas of Kermanshah province, Iran, during 2008 and 2009. J of venomous animals and toxins including tropical diseases. 2015;21.
  29. Mousavi SA, Rashidi H, Faramarzi A, Feyzi R, Kaidkhordeh M, Fard PF. Epidemiology of Scorpion Sting in Southwestern Iran Over Five Years. Trends in Medical Sciences. 2023;3(1).
  30. Kassiri H, Khodkar I, Safari-Asl A, Lotfi M. Study of The Frequency and Incidence of Scorpion Envenomation in Aghajri County, Khuzestan Province, Southwestern Iran. 2018;5:64-71.
  31. Kassiri H, Khodkar I, Yousefi M, Kasiri N, Lotfi M. Descriptive-Analytical Evaluation of Scorpion Sting Incidence in Masjed-Soleyman County, Southwestern Iran. Entomology and Applied Science Letters. 2019;6(2):13-9.
  32. Jahan S, Al Saigul AM, Hamed SAR. Scorpion stings in Qassim, Saudi Arabia–A 5-year surveillance report. Toxicon. 2007;50(2):302–5.
  33. Ebrahimi V, Hamdami E, Moemenbellah-Fard MD, Jahromi SE. Predictive determinants of scorpion stings in a tropical zone of south Iran: use of mixed seasonal autoregressive moving average model. Journal of venomous animals and toxins including tropical diseases. 2017;23.
  34. Firooziyan S, Sadaghianifar A, Rafinejad J, Vatandoost H, Bavani MM. Epidemiological Characteristics of Scorpionism in West Azerbaijan Province, Northwest of Iran. Journal of Arthropod-Borne Diseases. 2020;14(2):193.
آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 11,480
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 428


counter
سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. طراحی و پیاده سازی از سیناوب