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ارزیابی احتمال خطر شوری آب های زیرزمینی در دشتهای جنوبی آبخیز بختگان با مدلهای آماری، داده مبنا و تحلیل سلسلهمراتبی فازی | ||
| پژوهش های آبخیزداری | ||
| مقاله 2، دوره 35، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 136، مهر 1401، صفحه 2-14 اصل مقاله (1.92 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/wmrj.2021.355779.1432 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| حمیدرضا قره چایی1؛ علی اکبر نظری سامانی* 2؛ شهرام خلیقی سیگارودی2؛ خالد احمدآلی3؛ ابوالحسن فتح آبادی4 | ||
| 1کارشناس فنی طرح حفاظت از تالابهای ایران، سازمان حفاظت محیط زیست | ||
| 2دانشیار گروه احیای مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 3استادیار گروه احیای مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 4استادیار گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشگاه گنبدکاووس | ||
| چکیده | ||
| مسایل مرتبط با پیادهسازی سیاستهای ملی در زمینهی کاهش آسیبهای طبیعی در کشورهای توسعهیابنده نگرانی فراگیری است. در این پژوهش عاملهای موثر بر خطر، آسیبپذیری و احتمال خطر (ریسک) شوری آبهای زیرزمینی در دشتهای جنوبی آبخیز بختگان با مساحت 6137 کیلومترمربع با دو مدل شاخص آماری و الگوریتم ردهبندی درخت تصمیم، و فرآیند تحلیل سلسلهمراتبی فازی ارزیابی شد. در گام نخست با بررسی دادههای کیفی آبهای زیرزمینی از 124 چاه، نقطههای رخداد شوری آبهای زیرزمینی (بر مبنای شاخص هدایت الکتریکی) شناسایی شد. روش حذف ویژگی بازگشتی برای یافتن و انتخابکردن ترکیب اصلی شاخصها در تهیهی نقشههای خطر شوری آبهای زیرزمینی بهکار بردهشد. پس از تعیینکردن اهمیت هر شاخص با محاسبهی آزمون جکنایف، نقشهی خطر شوری آبهای زیرزمینی با دو مدل شاخص آماری و الگوریتم ردهبندی درخت تصمیم پیشبینی شد. اندازهی آسیبپذیری منطقه به شوری آبهای زیرزمینی با فرآیند تحلیل سلسلهمراتبی فازی سنجیده شد. برای ارزیابی کارکرد مدلهای دومتغیری و اعتبارسنجی مدلسازیها آمارههای حساسیت، ویژگی، صحت و ضریب کاپا، و برای مدلهای چندمتغیره چهار معیار ضریب تعیین، ضریب تطابق، ضریب کلینگ گوپتا، و ضریب همبستگی بهکار برده شد. نقشهی احتمال خطر شوری آبهای زیرزمینی از رویهمگذاشتن نقشههای خطر و آسیبپذیری تهیه شد. نتیجهها نشان داد که 4/13 کیلومترمربع از منطقههای آبیاریشده در ردهی احتمال خطر بسیار زیاد است، که بیشترین مساحت در میان کاربریهای گوناگون با آسیبپذیری خیلی زیاد است. برپایهی نتیجهی این پژوهش میتوان گفت که تدوین طرحهای جامع مدیریتی، نظارت و پایش فعالیتهای اجرایی مانند تغییر کاربریها، یا درنظر گرفتن شرایط حاکم در پیادهسازی کنشهای احیایی ممکن است به مهار و مدیریتکردن احتمال خطر این منطقهها کمک شایانی کند. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| ارزیابی احتمال خطر (ریسک)؛ حذف ویژگی بازگشتی؛ شوری؛ مدلهای دو و چند متغیره | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Groundwater Salinity Risk Assessment in the Southern Plains of the Bakhtegan Watershed Using Statistical and Data Mining Models and Fuzzy Hierarchical Analysis Process | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Hamid Reza Gharechaee1؛ Aliakbar Nazari Samani2؛ Shahram Khalighi Sigaroodi,2؛ Khaled Ahmadaali3؛ Abolhassan Fathabadi4 | ||
| 1Technical Expert of Conservation of Iranian Wetlands Project, Department of Environment, Tehran | ||
| 2Associate professor, Department of Arid & Mountainous Region Reclamation, Faculty of Natural Resources College, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran | ||
| 3Assistant Professor, Department of Arid & Mountainous Region Reclamation, Faculty of Natural Resources College, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran | ||
| 4Assistant Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Gonbad Kavoos, Gonbad Kavoos | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Issues related to implanting national policies for reducing natural hazards in developing countries are seen as an important and worrying challenge. In this research, the factors affecting the vulnerability, hazard, and risk of groundwater salinity in the southern plains of the Bakhtegan watershed with an area of 6137 km2 were assessed using statistical index models, Classification and Regression Tree (CART), and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP). At first, by assessing the data of groundwater quality from 124 wells in the watershed, the points of groundwater salinity occurrence (based on the electrical conductivity parameter) were recognized. After calculating and preparing basic maps related to each of the indicators, we looked for a way for selecting indicators to identify key indicators. To this end, the recursive feature removal (FRE) method was utilized for finding and selecting the main combination of indicators to prepare a map of groundwater salinity hazards. Accordingly, after determining the significance of each indicator by calculating the jackknife test, the salinity hazard map of groundwater was predicted using two models (SI) and (CART). Also, the degree of vulnerability of the region to the salinity of the groundwater was determined using the (FAHP) process. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and kappa coefficient statistics were used to evaluate the performance of two-variable models. Also, in order to evaluate the performance of multivariate models, fore criteria of coefficient of determination (R2), conformity coefficient (CC), Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE), and correlation coefficient (COR) were used. The results of groundwater salinity class risk study showed that 4.13 square kilometers of irrigated areas are in a very high-risk class, which among the various land uses with the highest vulnerability is related to this type of land use. Based on the results of this study, it can be stated that the development of comprehensive management plans, monitoring of executive activities, including change of uses, or taking into account the prevailing conditions in the implementation of rehabilitation operations can help control and manage risk in these areas. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Bivariate and multivariate models, salinity, risk assessment, recursive feature elimination | ||
| مراجع | ||
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