| تعداد نشریات | 286 |
| تعداد نشریات سازمان | 84 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 3,030 |
| تعداد مقالات | 33,889 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 45,268,666 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 61,246,881 |
اولویت بندی احداث سازه های آبیاری با روش‌های تصمیم گیری چند معیاره و ساختار شکست PMBok در شرایط عدم اطمینان | ||
| تحقیقات مهندسی سازه های آبیاری و زهکشی | ||
| دوره 22، شماره 83، مرداد 1400، صفحه 59-82 اصل مقاله (963.67 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/idser.2021.353203.1456 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| محمد رضا شهرکی* 1؛ مصطفی درخشیده2 | ||
| 1استادیار گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران | ||
| 2دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| سرمایه‌های عظیمی در توسعه منابع آب برای احداث سیستم‌های ذخیره و انتقال آب شبکه‌های آبیاری کشاورزی به کار گرفته می-شود. از آنجاییکه هر پروژه بر حسب منطقه و مکان جغرافیایی منحصر بفرد می‌باشد در هنگام اجرای پروژه ریسک‌های بالقوه شناسایی نشده‌ای بوجود می‌آیند، به طور قطع نمی‌توان یک برآورد مالی نسبتا دقیقی را محاسبه نمود. وجود این ریسک‌ها باعث هدر رفت در سرمایه‌گذاری می‌شود. از اقدامات موثری که برای کم کردن این استهلاک می‌توان انجام داد، مدیریت ریسک است. مدیریت ریسک در استاندارد PMBOK دربرگیرنده‌ی شناسایی ریسک‌ها براساس نظرات کارشناسی و رتبه‌بندی ریسک برمبنای دو معیار احتمال وقوع و شدت تأثیر است. آبیاری کشاورزی دشت سیستان که از سازه‌های مختلفی جهت ذخیره آب و آبیاری مزارع استفاده می‌نماید جهت مطالعه موردی در این تحقیق مورد بررسی قرار گرفته شده است. در این تحقیق از روش دلفی، برای شناسایی ریسک‌ها و از روش فرآیند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی به رتبه‌بندی آنها پرداخته شده است که ریسک‌های شرایط جوی و عدم تعهد در انجام کار دقیق اجرای سازه‌های آبیاری با کیفیت تعریف شده، بالاترین امتیاز را به خود تخصیص داده‌اند. در ادامه برای اولویت‌بندی چندین پروژه در منطقه سیستان با در نظر گرفتن ریسک‌های شناسایی شده، از روش ویکور استفاده شده که نتایج نشان می‌دهد احداث سازه های ابیاری تحت فشار رتبه اول، احداث ایستگاه پمپاژ و لوله کشی خط انتقال رتبه دوم، اجرای سازه های آبیاری گلخانه‌ای رتبه سوم و سازه های ابیاری کانال بتنی رتبه چهارم را جهت اجرا با کمترین هزینه ریسک در این منطقه را به خود اختصاص دادند. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| اعداد راف؛ ویکور؛ AHP؛ دلفی؛ ریسک | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Prioritization of construction of irrigation structures with multi-criteria decision making methods and PMBok failure structure in conditions of uncertainty | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Mohammad Reza Shahraki1؛ Mostafa Derakhshide2 | ||
| 1Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran | ||
| 2Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Sistan and Baluchestan University | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Huge investments are being made in the development of water resources for the construction of water storage and transmission systems for agricultural irrigation networks. Since each project is unique in terms of region and geographical location, and potential unrecognized risks arise during project implementation, a relatively accurate financial estimate cannot be calculated with certainty. The existence of these risks is a waste of investment. One of the effective measures that can be taken to reduce this depreciation is risk management. Risk management in PMBOK standard includes risk identification based on expert opinions and risk rating based on two criteria: probability of occurrence and severity of impact. Agricultural irrigation of Sistan plain, which uses different structures to store water and irrigate fields, has been studied in a case study in this study. In this research, the Delphi method is used to identify the risks and the hierarchical analysis process method is used to rank them. The risks of weather conditions and lack of commitment to perform accurate work on defined quality irrigation structures are assigned the highest score. have given. In order to prioritize several projects in Sistan region, taking into account the identified risks, Vickor method has been used, which shows the construction of first-class pressure irrigation structures, construction of pumping station and second-line transmission pipeline, construction of structures Irrigation greenhouses ranked third and irrigation structures of concrete canal ranked fourth for implementation with the lowest risk cost in this area. Introduction The return on investment in the construction of irrigation structures is achieved in the long run. These projects involve multiple stakeholders and their scope is influenced by many factors. The management of these projects is difficult and complex and requires multiple coordination to overcome these limitations [1]. Also, increasing investment in irrigation sectors, in addition to meeting basic needs, can have a positive impact on advancing strategic goals. [2] One of the most important issues in defining the types of irrigation structures is the uncertainty that they face due to the large size of the project or its uniqueness [3]. Existence of risk causes problems in project implementation, cost estimation, decline in quality and productivity of the project, as well as its delay [4]. Therefore, identifying uncertainties and analyzing risks play an important role in achieving the project's goals. Therefore, risks are performed according to the PMBOK standard and by probability-effect diagram, which is one of the pillars of risk management [5]. On the other hand, the impact of risks on structures is very important for their prioritization. Structural prioritization is also one of the most important factors of financial success for the Agricultural Jihad Organization [6]. For this purpose, multi-criteria decision-making strategy can be used to identify less risky structures [2]. Vickor method is one of the multi-criteria decision making tools that can determine the best and worst project with different criteria [7]. Since there is a kind of uncertainty in identifying and evaluating risks that includes personal comments or insufficient information in that field, the theory of rough number sets can be used to eliminate these types of uncertainties. [6] Methodology Existence of various and influential factors has caused uncertainties in choosing the most appropriate irrigation structure and also one of the topics that is less practically used within organizations is risk management. Therefore, in this study, the identification and scientific evaluation of risks in the construction of irrigation structures has been done. Risk management is used to execute the project on time and to prevent the estimated price increase, as well as to prevent excessive losses. Then, in order to evaluate the risks in the studied irrigation structures, the risks were identified and their importance was determined by using the combinations of Delphi and AHP methods. Ruff number theory has also been used to incorporate uncertainty into problems. The results obtained from the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method indicated that the risks of weather conditions and lack of commitment to perform the exact work of the project with the defined quality have the highest score. In the following research, the risks are assigned to the irrigation structures of the studied organization with the help of VIKOR multi-criteria decision making method. The results obtained from VIKOR method include a list of ranking of irrigation structures based on the degree of risk impact on their construction performance. These rankings are as follows: construction of pressurized irrigation structures in the first place, construction of pumping station and pipeline in the second place, construction of greenhouse irrigation structures in the third place and concrete canal irrigation structures in the fourth place. This ranking can help to manage risks and select projects with less risk, and managers can also prioritize low-risk projects to build, and avoid high-risk projects. Keywords: Raff numbers, VIKOR method, AHP method, Delphi process, Risk management | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Rough numbers, VIKOR, AHP, Delphi, Risk | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Ahmadi, Fazlullah Nasiriani, Khadijeh. Abazari, Parvaneh. (2008), Delphi Technique: A Tool in Research, Iranian Journal of Medical Education, Year 8, Issue 1, 185-175. . (In Persian)
Ahrariroudi, Mohyeddin.(2018), Assessment the effects of drought on groundwater quantity and quality of Sistan and Baluchistan Province, New findings of applied geology, 12(23), 104-113.
Alamatian, Ebrahim. Seifi Abdolabadi, Farzad. (2018), Integration of Risk Engineering Value Engineering in Irrigation Projects under Pressure of Hot-Dry Areas, 13th International Symposium on Science and Technology Advances: Sustainable Land, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Mashhad .(In Persian)
Alizadeh, Ali. (2014) Delphi Research, First Edition, Tehran: Yousef Publications. . (in Persian)
Amiri, Maghsoud. (2010), Group decision making for selecting machine tools using Victor Fuzzy method, Scientific-Research Quarterly Journal of Industrial Management Studies, Volume 6, Number 16, 188-167. (In Persian)
Ataiee, Mohammad (2010). Multi-criteria decision making, (first edition), Shahroud: Shahroud University of Technology Publications. (In Persian)
Carbone, t., Tippett, D., (2015), Project Risk Management Using the Project Risk FMEA, Engineering Management Journal, 16:4, 28-35.
Darwish, Sahar. Shirmohammadi, Vahid. Ranjbar, Fatemeh. Nahavandchi, Mehrdad. (2015), Reviewing and presenting environmental risk assessment models with the aim of improving the environmental management system, International Conference on Environment and Natural Resources, Shiraz. (In Persian)
Fouladgar, M., Yazdani-chamzinia, A., Zavadsekas, E.K., (2012), Risk evaluation of tunneling projects Archives of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, 12(1), 1-12. (In Persian)
Huang, J. J., Tzeng, G. H., & Liu, H. H., (2009). A revised VIKOR model for multiple criteria decision making – the perspective of regret theory. In: Shi, Y. et al (Eds.) Cutting-Edge Research Topics on Multiple Criteria Decision Making. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg, 761-768.
Jafarnejad, Ahmad Yousefi Zanooz, Reza. (2008), Presenting a fuzzy model of Band risk rank in Petro Pars Company's drilling projects, Journal of Industrial Management, Volume 1, Number 1, 38-21. (In Persian)
Karimi, Touraj. Sadeghi Moghadam, Mohammad Reza (2014), Raff Collections and Gray Collections, First Edition, Tehran: Mehraban Book. . (In Persian)
Kazazi, Abolfazl. Faizi Rad, Mohammad Ali. (2014), Development of SPACE matrix with the help of fuzzy fuzzy hierarchical analysis to determine the strategic position of the business, Quarterly Journal of Modern Marketing Research, Fourth Year, No. 3, 74-55. (In Persian)
Khatami Firoozabadi, Ali. (2008). Multi-Criteria Decision Making, (First Edition), Tehran: Miran Emrooz Marand Publications. . (In Persian)
kolahan, Farhad. Rezaei Nik, Ibrahim. Hassani Dooghabadi, Marzieh et al. (2014), Identifying and prioritizing the risks of the country's electricity industry development projects, Journal of Industrial Engineering, Volume 49, Number 1, Pages 107-116. (In Persian)
Mousavi, Anahita. Abdi, Farshid. Raeisi, Siddiq. (2014), Ranking of Risk Factors of Research Projects with the Combination of Network Analysis Process Methods and Fuzzy DEMATEL, Scientific-Promotional Quarterly Journal of Standard and Quality Management, Fourth Year, No. 3, Pages 57-48. . (In Persian)
Omidvar M, Nirumand F. (2017). Risk assessment using FMEA method and on the basis of MCDM, fuzzy logic and grey theory: A case study of overhead cranes. JHSW. 7 (1), 63-76. . (In Persian)
Pawlak, Z., (2012), Rough sets: Theoretical aspects of reasoning about data, 9, Springer Science & Business Media.
Piri, Halimah. Ansari, Hussein. (2013). Study of Sistan plain drought and its impact on Hamoon International Wetland. Wetland Ecology (Wetland). V5, No. 15, 63-74.(In Persian)
Poor Ahmad, Ahmad. Shahbazpour, Ahmad. Khaliji, Mohammad Ali (2015), Using Multi-Criteria Decision Modeling Models in Assessing the Capacity of Tourist Model Case Study of Semnan Province, Geographical Studies of Dry Areas, Volume 6, Number 21, 50-66. (In Persian)
Qudosipour, Hassan. (2016). Hierarchical Analysis Process (AHP), (Third Edition), Tehran: Amirkabir University of Technology.
Rezaei, Farzin. Ghaybdoost, Hamed. (2016), A Study of the Financial Performance of the Banking Industry by Vikor Method, Journal of Development Management and Special Letter Transformation, pp. 43-33. (In Persian)
Sabzehpour, Majid. (2012), Project Management, Tehran: Termeh .(In Persian)
Seifloo, Sajjad. Askari, Mohammad Mehdi. Sadeghi Shahedani, Mehdi, (2016), Identifying and Prioritizing the Risks of Upstream Oil and Gas Projects in Iran Using Risk Breaking Structure (RBS) and TOPSIS Technique Techniques, Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policy, Year 24, No. 78, 96-57. (In Persian)
Shafiee Nikabadi, Mojtaba. Shafiee Nikabadi, Mohsen. Hosseini, Seyed Mohammad Hassan (2016), Development of a model for evaluating and ranking construction projects according to the probability of risk occurrence and its impact on construction performance, Military Management Quarterly, Volume 16, Number 2, Pages 117-157.(In Persian)
Shahraki, Alireza. Jamali Moghadam, Fatemeh. (2016), Development of a Model for Risk Assessment of Construction Projects Based on Theory of Raff Numbers Collection, Journal of Scientific Performance Management, Volume 8, Number 16, Pages 62-39. (In Persian)
Sobhieh, Mohammad Hussein. Ranjbaran, Saeed. (2008), Karzner's organizational maturity model in project management, Project Management Quarterly, No. 3, 11-4. (In Persian)
Sodhis, M., Son, B., & Ting, C., (2014), Perspectives on supply chain Risk Management, Production and operation management, 21, 1-13.
Song, W., Ming, X., and Xu, Z., (2013), Risk evaluation of customer integration in new product development under uncertainty. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 65(3), 402-412.
Tzeng, G. H., and Tasur, S., (1994), The multiple criteria evaluation of grey relation model. The Journal of Grey System, 6(2), 87-108.
Ulfat, Laia, Khosravani, Farzaneh, Jalali, Reza. (1389). Identifying and prioritizing project risk based on PMBOK standard with fuzzy approach (Study: Non-level intersection construction projects in Bushehr province). Industrial Management Studies, 8 (19), 147-163.
Zahraei, benafshe. Roozbehani, Abbas. Mirshakari, Mostafa (2016), Presentation of Risk Analysis Model Based on Fuzzy Expert Systems for Construction Projects Management, Sharif Civil Engineering Quarterly, Volume 32.2, Number 4.1, Pages 61-70. (In Persian)
Zhai, L., Khoo, L., & Zhong, Z., (2008), A rough set enhanced fuzzy approach to quality function deployment. International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 37, 613-624. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 477 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 353 |
||