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مدل‌سازی تغییر کاربری زمین با مدل‌ساز و پیش بینی وضعیت سال 1409 در سرآب آبخیز سیاه‌رود | ||
| پژوهش های آبخیزداری | ||
| مقاله 8، دوره 34، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 132، مهر 1400، صفحه 115-132 اصل مقاله (1.72 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/wmej.2021.128644.1288 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| بهنوش جعفری گرزین1؛ عطااله کاویان* 2؛ کریم سلیمانی2 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دوره دکترای علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، واحد پردیس | ||
| 2استاد گروه علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری | ||
| چکیده | ||
| برنامه ریزی و مدیریت بهینه ی زمین، مستلزم به روزرسانی اطلاعات تغییر کاربری در طول زمان است. کاربرد توانمندی های سنجش ازدور و مدل‌ساز تغییر زمین (ال‌سی‌ام) بستر مناسبی برای شبیه سازی تغییر کاربری زمین ایجاد می‌کند. تغییر کاربری زمین در منطقه ی سرآب آبخیز سیاه‌رود در بازه ی زمانی 1394-1356 با مدل‌ساز ارزیابی، و سپس کاربری زمین برای سال 1409 شبیه سازی شد. نقشه های کاربری زمین سال های 1356، 1367، 1377، 1388 و 1394 با روش های طبقه بندی نظارت نشده و نظارت شده‌ی تصویرهای ماهواره ی لندست تهیه، و مدل‌ساز تغییر زمین برای سه دوره ی زمانی 1367-1356 و 1377-1367 و 1388-1377 در قالب سه مدل اجرا شد. پس از ارزیابی عملکرد این مدل ها، مناسب ترین آن برای پیش بینی تغییر کاربری زمین انتخاب، و با کاربرد داده های دوره ی 1394-1388 پیش بینی برای سال 1409 انجام شد. نتیجه‌ی این پژوهش بیانگر آن است که کاربرد ورودی های مناسب برای مدل‌ساز تغییر زمین، به کارگیری روش های ترکیبی در طبقه‌بندی، و بهره گیری از دانش کارشناسی می تواند در بهبود نتیجه‌ی طبقه بندی تصویرها ماهواره یی و افزایش کارآیی ال‌سی‌ام موثر باشد (ضریب کاپای 0/82 تا 0/91). پیش بینی تغییر کاربریزمین در منطقه ی سرآب آبخیز سیاه‌رود در بازه ی زمانی 1356 تا 1409 بیانگر کاهش 67 % سطح زمین شالیزاری، کاهش 12 % سطح جنگل، 34 برابر شدن وسعت زمین مخلوط زراعت و باغ، و 3 برابر شدن وسعت منطقه‌های مسکونی است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| آشکارسازی تغییر؛ تحلیل چندزمانه؛ تصویرهای ماهواره یی؛ رودخانه‌ی سیاه‌رود | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Modeling LandUse Changes Using Land Change Modeler for Prediction of the 2030 LandUse on the upstream area of the Siahroud River Basin | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Behnoush Jafari Gorzin1؛ Ataollah Kavian2؛ Karim Solaimani2 | ||
| 1Ph.D. Student, Watershed Management Science and Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran | ||
| 2Professor, Department of the Watershed Management Science and Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| An optimized land management and the planning requires updating information on the land use changes over time. The application of remote sensing capabilities and land use change modeler (LCM) may provide a suitable platform for simulating land use changes. The LCM, land use changes in the upstream area of the Siahrud River Basin were evaluated in the 1977-2015 period and simulated for 2030. The land use maps of 1977, 1988, 1998, 2009 and 2015 were prepared, using the unsupervised and supervised classification methods of the Landsat satellite images, and the LCM, for the 1977-1988, 1988-1998 and 1998-2009 periods were implemented in the form of three models. After evaluation the performance of these models, the most appropriate one was selected. Using the data for the 2009-2015 periods a prediction was made for the year 2030. The results indicate that the use of appropriate inputs for the LCM, the application of the combined methods in classification, and utilizing expert knowledge, can be effective in improving the classification results and increasing the efficiency of the LCM. (Kappa coefficient 0.82 to 0.91). Predicting land use changes in the Siahroud River Basin during the 1977 to 2030 period indicates a 67% decrease in paddy fields and 12% decrease in forest area and a 34-fold increase in the extent of the mixed agricultural and orchards, and threefold increase in the extent of the residential areas. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Change detection, multi-temporal analysis, satellite images, Siahroud River | ||
| مراجع | ||
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