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تحلیل احتمال وقوع تغییر کاربری اراضی در دامنه‌‌های جنوبی البرز (مطالعه موردی: حوزه آبخیز کن در استان تهران) | ||
| تحقیقات جنگل و صنوبر ایران | ||
| مقاله 8، دوره 27، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 77، آذر 1398، صفحه 322-334 اصل مقاله (946.07 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی- پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/ijfpr.2019.126399.1839 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مریم اقنوم1؛ جهانگیر فقهی* 2؛ مجید مخدوم3؛ علیرضا مقدم نیا4؛ وحید اعتماد5 | ||
| 1دانش‌آموخته دکتری جنگل‌داری، گروه جنگل‌داری و اقتصاد جنگل، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران | ||
| 2نویسنده مسئول، استاد، گروه جنگل‌داری و اقتصاد جنگل، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران | ||
| 3استاد، گروه جنگل‌داری و اقتصاد جنگل، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران | ||
| 4دانشیار، گروه مهندسی احیاء مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران | ||
| 5دانشیار، گروه جنگل‌داری و اقتصاد جنگل، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| حوزه‌‌های آبخیز مشرف به شمال شهر تهران که در دامنه‌‌های جنوبی البرز مرکزی قرار دارند، در دهه‌‌های اخیر در معرض تغییر کاربری و استفاده‌‌های غیراصولی بوده‌‌اند، بنابراین آگاهی از تغییر و تحولات کاربری‌‌ها و تهیه نقشه‌‌های احتمال تغییرات مکانی کاربری اراضی بهمنظور چاره‌‌اندیشی برای مقابله با این پدیده، ضروری به‌نظر می‌‌رسد. در پژوهش پیش‌‌رو با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره لندست، نقشه‌‌های کاربری اراضی سال‌‌های 2000 و 2017 حوزه آبخیز کن به‌روش طبقه‌‌بندی نظارت‌‌شده و الگوریتم حداکثر احتمال تهیه شد. بهمنظور تعیین مهمترین عوامل مؤثر بر تغییر کاربری اراضی و پهنه‌‌بندی احتمال وقوع تغییرات، داده‌‌های رقومی نه عامل محیطی و چهار عامل انسانی در محیط GIS تهیه شدند. نقشه احتمال وقوع تغییر کاربری اراضی با استفاده از رگرسیون لجستیک تهیه شد. صحت مدل‌‌سازی با استفاده از منحنی مشخصه عملکرد سیستم تعیین شد که بیانگر قابلیت مناسب مـدل برای توصیف تغییرات و تعیین مناطق مستعد تغییر بود. نتایج نشان داد که حدود 60 درصد از وسعت حوزه آبخیز کن در طبقه‌های متوسط تا بسیار زیاد حساسیت به تغییر کاربری قرار دارند. در این میان، متغیرهای شیب، ارتفاع از سطح دریا، جهت جغرافیایی، عمق خاک، متوسط بارندگی و دما در فصل رویش، مهمترین عوامل مؤثر بر تعیین احتمال تغییر کاربری اراضی بودند. به‌طور کلی، نتایج پژوهش پیش‌‌رو نشان داد که در سال‌‌های اخیر روند تغییر کاربری اراضی در منطقه مورد مطالعه چشمگیر بوده و احتمال وقوع تغییرات در آینده نیز بسیار زیاد است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| پهنه‌‌بندی؛ رگرسیون لجستیک؛ عوامل انسانی؛ عوامل محیطی؛ کاربری اراضی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Assessing the probability of land-use change in the southern Alborz slopes (Case study: Kan watershed of the Tehran Province, Iran) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| maryam oghnoum1؛ jahangir feghhi2؛ Majid Makhdoum3؛ Alireza Moghaddamnia4؛ vahid etemad5 | ||
| 1Ph.D. Graduate of Forestry, Department of Forestry and Forest Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran | ||
| 2Corresponding author, Prof., Department of Forestry and Forest Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran | ||
| 3Prof., Department of Forestry and Forest Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran | ||
| 4Associate Prof., Department of Arid and Mountainous Regions Reclamation, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran | ||
| 5Associate Prof., Department of Forestry and Forest Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The northern mountains of Tehran are amongst the most valuable natural ecosystems in Iran, which have been destroyed in recent decades due to improper use of land and land-use changes. Therefore, studies on the land-use changes via spatial occurrence probability maps are necessary to deal with this phenomenon. In the present study land use/land cover of 2000 and 2017 were mapped using Landsat satellite images by supervised classification method and maximum likelihood algorithm for the Kan watershed in the Tehran Province. In order to determine the most important factors affecting land-use change as well as zoning the probability of changes, digital data of biophysical (nine variables) and human (four variables) factors were analyzed in the GIS. Finally, the map of probability of land-use changes was produced by applying logistic regression. Validation of the model was performed using relative operating characteristic, which indicated the high ability of the model to describe the changes and determine the areas prone to changes. The results showed that about 60% of the Kan watershed is classified as highly prone to land-use changes. In those areas, variables such as elevation, aspect, slope, soil depth, average growing season precipitation, and average growing season temperature were identified as the most important factors affecting the land-use changes. Conclusively, the results of this research indicated significant land use/cover changes in the studied area during the recent years, as well as a high occurrence probability of future land-use changes. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Environmental factors, human factors, land-use, logistic regression, zoning | ||
| مراجع | ||
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