| تعداد نشریات | 285 |
| تعداد نشریات سازمان | 83 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 3,086 |
| تعداد مقالات | 34,441 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 48,897,328 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 79,343,343 |
توسعه روشی برای ارزیابی خطر آتش‌سوزی جنگل با استفاده از متغیرهای محیطی و انسان‌ساخت | ||
| تحقیقات جنگل و صنوبر ایران | ||
| مقاله 11، دوره 23، شماره 1، فروردین 1394، صفحه 117-133 اصل مقاله (304.36 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی- پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/ijfpr.2015.102369 | ||
| نویسنده | ||
| سعیده اسکندری* | ||
| دکتری جنگلداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری | ||
| چکیده | ||
| پژوهش پیش‌رو به‌منظورارزیابی خطر آتش‌سوزی به‌روش همپوشانی و با استفاده از متغیرهای مختلف محیطی و انسان‌ساخت در جنگل‌های بخش سه نکا- ظالمرود انجام شد. ابتدا نقشه‌های زیرمعیارهای عامل‌های فیزیوگرافی، زیست‌شناختی، اقلیمی و انسان‌ساخت تهیه شد. همچنین نقشه آتش‌سوزی‌های گذشته منطقه از شرکت نکاچوب تهیه و رقومی شد. سپس نقشه مناطق آتش‌سوزی گذشته با نقشه زیرمعیارهای هر یک از معیارهای مذکور روی‌هم‌گذاری شد تا میزان همپوشانی طبقات پرخطر این نقشه‌ها با محدوده آتش‌سوزی‌های گذشته (اهمیت یا وزن هر زیرمعیار در وقوع آتش‌سوزی) مشخص شود. نتایج نشان داد زیرمعیارهای نوع و تراکم پوشش گیاهی، فاصله از رودخانه و میانگین رطوبت نسبی سالانه بیشترین تأثیر را در وقوع آتش‌سوزی این جنگل‌ها داشته‌اند. نقشه خطر وقوع آتش‌سوزی با ادغام وزنی کلیه نقشه‌های زیرمعیارهای موثر در GIS در پنج طبقه تهیه شد. در نهایت نقشه آتش‌سوزی‌های گذشته با نقشه خطر آتش‌سوزی روی‌هم‌گذاری شد. نتایج نشان داد که مناطق پرخطر آتش‌سوزی در نقشه پتانسیل خطر تهیه شده با روش همپوشانی، تطابق زیادی با مناطق آتش‌سوزی‌های گذشته دارند که نشان‌دهنده اعتبار و صحت زیاد روش مورد استفاده می‌باشد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| جنگل‌های نکا- ظالمرود؛ خطر آتش‌سوزی جنگل؛ سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی؛ معیارهای انسان‌ساخت؛ معیارهای محیطی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Developing a method to assess forest fire risk using environmental and human variables | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Saeideh Eskandari | ||
| Ph.D. Forestry, Forestry Department, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| A study was conducted to evaluate fire risk using environmental- and human-induced factors in District Three of Neka-Zalemroud forests. For this purpose, a range of effective sub-criteria including physiographic, biological, climatic and human variables were applied. The historical fire map in study area was additionally used. It was overlaid on the spatial map of each sub-criterion to explore the correlation of the weighted high-risk classes with the historical fire occurrences. Fire risk potential map was provided based on weighted overlay of all effective sub-criteria in five classes. The historical fire map was consequently overlaid on fire risk potential map. Results showed that vegetation type and density, distance from river and the averaged relative annual humidity were associated with the highest effects in fire occurrence. Results also demonstrated the agreement of high-risk areas in the potential fire risk map with the historical fires, which supports the high validity of the applied method to assess the fire risk across the study area. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Neka-Zalemroud Forests, forest fire risk, GIS, human-induced criteria, environmental- induced criteria | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
- Alexander, J.D., Seavy, N.E., Ralph, C.J. and Hogoboom, B., 2006. Vegetation and topographical correlates of fire severity from two fires in the Klamath-Siskiyou region of Oregon and California. International Journal ofWildland Fire, 15: 237-245. - Ali Mahmoudi Sarab, S., Feghhi, J. and Jabarian Amiri, B., 2012. Prediction of fire occurrence in forests and rangelands using Artificial Neural Network (Case study: Zagros forests, Eyzeh). Applied Ecology, 1(2): 75-85 (In Persian). - Alonso-Betanzos, A., Fontenla-Romero, O., Guijarro-Berdin˜as, B., Hernández- Pereira, E., Canda, E., Jimenez, J., Luis Legido, J., Mun˜iz, S., Paz-Andrade, C. and Paz-Andrade, M.I., 2002. A neural network approach for forest fire risk estimation: 643-647. In: Van Harmelen, F. (Eds.). Proceedings of the 15th European Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Lyon, France. - Anonymous, 2001. Available from: www.unifreiburg.deyfireglobeyiffnyorgyecefaoyece-1.htm - Anonymous, 2010. Forestry plan of District Three of Neka-Zalemroud Forests. Natural Resources and Watershed Administration of Mazandaran Province,, Iran, 290p (In Persian). - Anonymous, 2011. Statistics and data of fire in 2010 in Mazandaran. Protection unit of MNRA Press, Iran, 190p. - Biranvand, A., Babaei Kafaki, S. and Kiadaliri, H., 2011. Investigation the ecological factors affecting fire spread in forest ecosystems (Case Study: Kakareza-Lorestan). Journal of Renewable Natural Resources Researches, 2(2): 1-13 (In Persian). - Broncano, M.J. and Retana, J., 2004. Topography and pre-fire vegetation affecting the spatial heterogeneity generated after a large forest wildfire in the Mediterranean Basin. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 13: 209-216. - Chuvieco, E. and Congalton, R.G., 1989. Application of remote sensing and geographic information systems to forest fire hazard mapping. Remote Sensing of Environment, 29: 147-159. - Cortez, P. and Morais, A., 2007. A data mining approach to predict forest fires using meteorological data. Proceedings of the 13th Portugese Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Portugal: 512-523. - Dong, X.U., Li-min, D., Guo-fan, Sh., Lei, T. and Hui, W., 2005. Forest fire risk zone mapping from satellite images and GIS for Baihe Forestry Bureau, Jilin, China. Journal of Forestry Research, 16(3): 169-174. - Eskandari, S. and Jalilvand, H., 2012. Climate change and its impact on number and area of fire of forest areas of Eastern Mazandaran. Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Climate Change and Tree Chronology. Iran, 16-18 May. 2012: 15p (In Persian). - Eskandari, S., Oladi Ghadikolaei, J. and Jalaivand, H., 2013a. Efficiency evaluation of Dong model for determination of fire risk potential in Zarrin Abad forests of Neka-Mazandaran province. Iranian Journal of Forest and Poplar Research, 21(3): 31-44 (In Persian). - Eskandari, S., Oladi Ghadikolaei, J., Jalilvand, H., Saradjian, MR., 2013b. Forest fire risk modeling and prediction in district three of Neka-Zalemroud forest using geographical information system. Iranian Journal of Forest and Poplar Research, 21(2): 203-217 (In Persian). - FAO, 2007. Fire Management-Global Assessment 2006, A Thematic Study Prepared in the Framework of the Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005. FAO Press, Rome. - Jaiswal, R.K., Mukherjee, S., Raju, D.K. and Saxena, R., 2002. Forest fire risk zone mapping from satellite imagery and GIS. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 4: 1-10. - Jurdao, S., Chuvieco, E. and Arevalillo, J.M., 2012.Modelling fire ignition probability from satellite estimates of live fuel moisture content. Fire Ecology, 8(1): 77-97. - Keane, R.E., Drurya, S.A., Karaua, E.C., Hessburg, P.F. and Reynolds, K.M., 2010. A method for mapping fire hazard and risk across multiple scales and its application in fire management. Ecological Modelling, 221: 2-18. - Keeley, J. and Fortheringham, J., 2001. History and management of crown-fire ecosystems: a summary and response. Conservation Biology, 15: 1561-1567. - Lentile, L.B., Holden, Z.A., Smith, A.M.S., Falkowski, M.J., Hudak, A.T., Morgan, P., Lewis, S.A., Gessler P.E. and Benson, N.C., 2006. Remote sensing techniques to assess active fire characteristics and postfire effects. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 15: 319-345. - Lozano, F.J., Suárez-Seoane, S., Kelly M. and Luis, E., 2008. A multi-scale approach for modeling fire occurrence probability using satellite data and classification trees: A case study in a mountainous Mediterranean region. Remote Sensing of Environment, 112: 708-719. - Mahdavi, A., Fallah Shamsi, S.R. and Nazari, R., 2012. Forests and rangelands’ wildfire risk zoning using GIS and AHP techniques. Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences, 10(1): 43-52. - Martinez, J., Vega-Garcia, C. and Chuvieco, E., 2009. Human-caused wildfire risk rating for prevention planning in Spain. Journal of Environmental Management, 90: 1241-1252. - Minnich, R.A., 2001. An integrated model of two fire regimes. Conservation Biology, 15: 1549-1553. - Mohammadi, F., Shabanian, N., Pourhashemi, M. and Fatehi, P., 2010. Forest fire hazard mapping using AHP and GIS. Iranian Journal of Forest and Poplar Researches, 18(4): 569-586 (In Persian). - Paz, Sh., Carmel, Y., Jahshan, F. and Shoshany, M., 2011. Post-fire analysis of pre-fire mapping of fire-risk: A recent case study from Mt. Carmel (Israel). Forest Ecology and Management, 262: 1184-1188. - Radpour, S., Ismailzadeh, M., Yazdani, V., Sohani Darban, A.R. and Jahedipour, S., 2011. Application of artificial neural networks in estimating the occurrence of fire. Proceedings of the First international conferences on wildfire in natural resources lands. Iran, 26-28 Oct. 2011: 8p (In Persian). - Röder, A., Hill, J., Duguy, B., Alloza, J.A. and Vallejo, R., 2008. Using long time series of Landsat data to monitor fire events and post-fire dynamics and identify driving factors, a case study in the Ayora region (eastern Spain). Remote Sensing of Environment, 112: 259-273. - Rollins, M.G., Keane, R.E. and Parsons, R.A., 2004. Mapping fuels and fire regimes using remote sensing, ecosystem simulation and gradient modeling. Ecological Applications,14(1): 75-95. - Salamati, H., Mostafalou, H., Mastoori, A. and Honardoost, F., 2011. Evaluation and provision of forest fire risk map using GIS in Golestan forests. Proceedings of the First International Conferences on Wildfire in Natural Resources Lands. Iran, 26-28 Oct. 2011: 10 p (In Persian). - Santiago, I.T.F. and Kheladze, N., 2011. GIS wildland fire hazard modeling in Georgia. MATRA project report, Caucasus Environmental NGO Network, 98p. - Schoennagel, T., Veblen, T.T. and Romme, W.H., 2004. The interaction of fire, fuels, and climate across Rocky Mountain forests. BioScience, 54: 661-676. - Sibold, J.S. and Veblen, T.T., 2006. Relationships of subalpine forest fires in the Colorado Front Range with interannual and multidecadal-scale climatic variation. Journal of Biogeography, 33: 833-842. - Sitanggang, I.S., Yaakob, R., Mustapha, N., Ainuddin, A.N., 2013. Predictive models for hotspots occurrence using decision tree algorithm and logistic regression. Journal of Applied Sciences, 13(2): 252-261. - Sowmya, S.V. and Somashekar, R.K., 2010. Application of remote sensing and geographical information system in mapping forest fire risk zone at Bhadra wildlife sanctuary, India. Journal of Environmental Biology, 31(6): 969-974. - Stolle, F., Chomitz, K.M., Lambin, E.F. and Tomich, T.P., 2003. Human ecological intervention and the role of forest fires in human ecology. Forest Ecology and Management, 179: 277-292. - Stolzenburg, W., 2001. Fire in the rain forest. Nature Conservancy, 31: 22-27. - Vadrevu, K.P., Eaturu, A. and Badarinath, K.V.S., 2009. Fire risk evaluation using multicriteria analysis, a case study. Environment Monitoring and Assessment, 166(1-4): 223-239. - Vakalis, D., Sarimveis, H., Kiranoudis, C.T., Alexandridis, A. and Bafas, G.V., 2004. A GIS based operational system for wildland fire crisis management, I. Mathematical modelling and simulation. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 28(4): 389-410. - Vasconcelo, M.J., Silva, S., Tome, M., Alvim, M. and Perelra, J.M.C., 2001. Spatial prediction of fire ignition probabilities: comparing logistic regression and neural networks. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 67(1): 73-81. - Vasilakos, C., Kalabokidis, K., Hatzopoulos, J. and Matsinos, I., 2009. Identifying wildland fire ignition factors through sensitivity analysis of a neural network. Natural Hazards, 50(1): 125-143. - Vazquez, A. and Moreno, J.M., 2001. Spatial distribution of forest fires in Sierra de Gredos (central Spain). Forest Ecology and Management, 147(1): 55-65. - Yousefi, A. and Jalilvand, H., 2010. Investigation of fire situation in forest and pasture areas of Mazandaran province (Basin of Sari Natural Resources Administration) from 2004 to 2007. Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Climate Change and Tree Chronology, Iran, 14-16 May 2010: 15p (In Persian). - Zarekar, A., Kazemi Zamani, B., Ghorbani, S., Ashegh Moalla, M. and Jafari, H., 2013. Mapping spatial distribution of forest fire using MCDM and GIS (Case study: three forest zones in Guilan Province). Iranian Journal of Forest and Poplar Research, 21(2): 218-230 (In Persian). - Zobeiri, M., 2007. Forest Biometry. University of Tehran Press, Tehran, 405p (In Persian). - Zumbrunnen, T., Pezzattic, G.B., Menéndezd, P., Bugmann, H., Bürgia, M. and Conederac, M., 2011. Weather and human impacts on forest fires: 100 years of fire history in two climatic regions of Switzerland. Forest Ecology and Management, 261: 2188-2199. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 1,961 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 906 |
||